International Man: Former Libyan leader Muammar Ghaddafi once warned that “Europe runs the risk of turning black from illegal immigration… it could turn into Africa.”
Since the United States and NATO helped overthrow Ghaddafi in 2011, millions of migrants from Africa and the Middle East have poured into Europe. Many transited from Libya.
This is all well known, and all signs point to this trend accelerating. What’s your take on where this is going?
Doug Casey: It’s a pity Ghaddafi was taken out. Not that he was a nice guy—no one running an artificially constructed nation-state is. But at least it was a stable situation. Libya is still on the map, but it’s been replaced by at least two new rump states, after a bloody and costly civil war. Another disastrous US policy decision. Nice work by Hillary and Obama.
But let’s talk about Africa at large. Africa, or at least migration out of Africa, is going to be one of the world’s big stories for the rest of this century.
Africa has gone from being just an empty space on the map in the 19th century, to a bunch of backwater colonies in the 20th century, to a bunch of chaotic failed states that most people are only vaguely aware of today. Soon, however, it will be continuing front-page news. That’s because Chinese are moving to Africa in record numbers while Africans are leaving as fast as they can.
What we’re looking at is the biggest migration since the barbarian invasions of the Roman Empire. Millions of Africans are trying to get into Europe. I don’t know how the Europeans will keep them out. I used to say Europe was going to be a petting zoo for the Chinese, but it may be more of a squatter’s camp for the Africans.
Africa is the only part of the world where the population is still growing rapidly. Africa south of the Sahara was about 6% of the world’s population in the ’50s; now, it’s about 20%. By the turn of the century, the UN projects it will be 45%—assuming there isn’t some kind of catastrophe. That’s because it’s unclear whether Africans can grow enough food for billions more people.
In fact, if the West stops supporting the continent with capital and technology, it could be in for very tough times. That’s in addition to lots of wars fought with modern weapons, not just machetes, like those that killed over 500,000 in Rwanda a generation ago.
Wakanda, the mythical country in “Black Panther”, doesn’t exist. On the contrary, the continent is full of Gondwana lookalikes. Gondwana is a dangerous and crazy country where most of the action takes place in Speculator, the novel John Hunt and I wrote. It’s the first of seven in the High Ground series.
Few people realize how fast the population is growing and how things are changing in Africa. I ask knowledgeable people what they think the biggest cities in the world will be at the turn of the next century. They all guess cities in China or India.
But that’s not true. Eighty years from now, Lagos, Nigeria, maybe the largest city in the world, with a population of over 90 million. The world’s second biggest city will be Kinshasa in the Congo with about 80 million people. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, will be the world’s third-biggest city, with a population of roughly 75 million people. It’s quite amazing. When I first visited Dar in the early ’80s, it was a quiet, exotic seaport with old tramp steamers in the harbor.
Now all those people have cell phones, and they’re well aware that standards of living are vastly higher in Europe and North America. And they know that massive welfare benefits await if they can get there.
Hundreds of NGOs are encouraging Africans to get across the Mediterranean to Europe. Many are flown to the US. For instance, exactly who paid the airfare and living expenses of the 200,000 penniless Somali Muslims who were transplanted to Minnesota?
It’s a growing tidal wave. With the native European population diminishing and the African population growing, Europe will resemble Africa in the next several generations, barring radical change in the trend.
International Man: We don’t hear much about the massive migration of the Chinese to Africa that’s taking place.
Doug, you’ve spent a lot of time in Africa. What’s going on with that?
Doug Casey: We’re seeing a veritable recolonization of Africa. Each time I visit Africa, there are more Chinese. They’re everywhere.
Rich Chinese are smart to diversify to developed Western countries. Poor Chinese go to backward countries to try to become wealthy. Africa is the prime recipient.
It’s supposedly official Chinese policy to migrate about 300 million Chinese to Africa in the years to come. They’re employed in building roads, railroads, ports, mines, and other infrastructure, partially driven by the Belt and Road Initiative.
The Chinese are also lending billions to African governments. African governments are, by an order of magnitude, the most corrupt in the world. And the people who run these African governments are being well compensated for making deals with the Chinese. These governments are full of people trying to be “Mister 10%.”
They want to retire as cent millionaires, living high off the hog in France or Switzerland. It’s a fairly unstoppable trend.
Regardless of how much is stolen, however, I expect the Chinese are going to want the money they loaned to the Africans back, with interest. If bribing or intimidating political leaders proves ineffective in getting it back, it’s possible that they’ll put soldiers’ boots on the ground. They could send in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to defend their assets. Or send in assassins to take out recalcitrant African politicians.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find the PLA in Africa in the years to come, physically collecting on those debts. And to make it easier, they’ll be greeted by lots of Chinese already there.
It will be interesting to see what happens when a couple hundred million Chinese, who will control the economy, are living with a radically expanding native African population.
If the Africans were unhappy with European colonization, I think they’re going to be very, very unhappy with the Chinese colonization. The Chinese will not be “inclusive,” “woke,” and PC like today’s Westerners. It has the makings of a race war a generation or so in the future.
International Man: What about Africa piques the interests of the Chinese?
Doug Casey: It’s important to remember that Africa doesn’t produce anything besides raw materials—and people. Sub-Saharan Africa has close to zero manufacturing—like 1% of the world’s total. And almost all of that is in South Africa.
The Chinese see Africans as no more than a cheap and dispensable labor source. That’s at best. Beyond that, they’re viewed as a nuisance. Basically, an obstacle—a cost—stands in the way of efficient use of the continent’s resources.
What do the Chinese think of Africans? They don’t hold them in high regard. Of course, you’ve got to remember that China has viewed itself as the center of the world since Day One. They see all non-Han people as barbarians, as inferiors.
The same was true when the British sent an ambassador, Macartney, to open relations at the very end of the 18th century. He was treated with borderline contempt—pretty much the way Westerners have treated primitive peoples since the days of Columbus.
It’s the normal human attitude when an advanced culture encounters a backward culture. The Chinese believe their culture is superior to the West’s and believe—probably correctly—that they’ll soon be economically and technologically superior as well.
International Man: If China comes to dominate Africa and its resources, what does that mean for its rivalry with the US?
Doug Casey: The US government is basically bankrupt at this point. The main US export, now and for the last 40 years, has been US dollars.
Sometime soon the Chinese, the Malaysians, the Iranians, and the Indians, among others, won’t want US dollars. They don’t want to accept them now, because it’s an asset of their adversary, or even their enemy. The world saw what happened to Russia and realized they could be next. They’re unhappy about having to settle accounts in dollars that all have to clear through New York.
So they’ll come up with their own alternative. I suspect they’re going to use gold. Why? Because they don’t trust each other’s paper currencies any more than the dollar.
The US dollar could be left out in the cold. Foreign countries want and need real goods, not the paper obligations of a hostile, unpredictable, bankrupt government. Again, the main US exports are fiat dollars and unwelcome soldiers. Meanwhile, the Chinese are exporting a couple hundred million spare people, backed by scores of billions of capital.
The bottom line is that the Chinese are likely to take over Africa both financially and demographically.
International Man: What kind of speculative opportunities do you think this trend will create?
Doug Casey: I’ve often said that if I were 30 years old today and wanted to make my fortune, I would go to Africa.
Why? You don’t want to be on a level playing field. You want to be on a field tilted in your direction as much as possible.
A prepared young Westerner in Africa will find it quite easy to move with the top levels of society for several reasons. He’s unusual, and people are interested in the unusual. As a Westerner, you probably have considerably more money, sophistication, knowledge, and connections than the locals. You have unique advantages in Africa. If a young Westerner stays at home, however, he has no marginal advantages.
It’s not easy to vault yourself to the top in a Western society because there are tens of millions of people just like you with the same education, background, and abilities.
But in Africa, you’re automatically on the top of the heap. It’s a great place to go for entrepreneurial reasons, and the experience you’ll get also will make you unique back home.
At the same time, I don’t think Africa is necessarily the best place to invest. Its lack of stability means it’s a better place for entrepreneurialism or perhaps political entrepreneurialism.
As corrupt as Africa is, businessmen are almost forced to hook up with the government. A Westerner can go to any number of African countries, spend a month making appointments with businessmen and lawyers, and end up sitting down with the president.
That’s unlikely to happen if you try to do the same thing in North America or Europe. Or, for that matter, even South America or Asia.
International Man: If you were 30 years old and looking for an opportunity in Africa, what countries would you be most interested in?
Doug Casey: I wouldn’t jump off the deep end at first. Nigeria is too big for a start. South Africa is too developed, and there are too many people of European descent—although whites there are making what the Rhodesians called “the chicken run,” and for the same reasons. There’s too much anti-white racism in South Africa.
I might start with a country like Namibia, which is large, empty, and pretty mellow. I would definitely look at Mozambique. Or Mauritania—a huge country where nobody goes. São Tomé and Príncipe, an obscure island country off the west coast. Zambia and Zimbabwe are manageable, and English-speaking. If you’re adventurous, try the Central African Republic. It may be the most backward country in Africa. I tried to fly there from Paris years ago but couldn’t because of a newly started coup/civil war.
But that’s another story. Africa is a long way from the days of Stanley and Burton, but neither is it always smooth sailing.
Reprinted with permission from International Man.
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