The phrase “Projection Market” is used by the media as an alternate phrase to “betting market”. Polymarket is an example of a “Projection Market”. Psychologically, betting or saattta (Hindi) or Phaatka (Marwari, Rajasthan, India) is a bad world in the global society. “Projection Market” is being portrayed as a synonym for the socially unacceptable “betting market”.
“Projection Market” volumes are huge, rising every day, and will continue to rise for the next two decades. “Projection Market” is being portrayed as an investment class. The youth and the teenagers worldwide have made a big investment in the “Projection Market”. Volume change in “Projection Market” will impact all asset classes.
The soccer World Cup will see huge, very short- term investment in the “Projection Market” asset class. I believe that this is one the minor reasons for the current correction in gold price and silver price. This is also the reason why LME copper is not able to break $15,000 per tonne even when extremely favorable conditions are there.
Every trader and every short-term investor needs to keep themselves updated on the developments in the “Projection Market” asset class. Trading/investment ways change. Post COVID pandemic and under Trump2, investment/trading style has changed drastically. “Projection Market” is another big change that we need to keep ourselves updated on.
Coming back to gold and silver, it is nice to see hot money traders getting blown away. Stop losses have been triggered. First-time traders/investors of silver have been shown how much it can correct from the highs. Oversold technicals are present in gold and silver. The Bank of Japan's raising interest rates next week is fully factored in by the market. The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next week.
Negative Economic impact of Iran should be felt in Asia and Europe on or after August. (This is my view. I may be wrong.) Summer in Asia will end this month. Soccer World Cup spending will end by mid- July. Frugality will start with the masses in Asia. The USA and only the USA will see the largest economic growth in the third quarter. The US dollar Index should rise or remain firm till the end of the third quarter.
My only big worry is the US ten-year bond yield breaking the five percent mark and trading over five percent for a long time. I hope it does not happen. It will be catastrophic for all asset classes.
Once again, intraday traders remain on the sidelines for the next eight days. Investors (of gold and silver) need not worry an iota.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $63.67
- 50 WEEK MA: $64.43
- 100% retracement support: $60.98. (This is the long-term support.)
- TODAY VIEW: Immediate trend is down as long as spot silver trades below fifty week moving average around $64.43.
- However, Spot silver has to trade over 62.90 on a daily closing basis today, tomorrow, and next week to be in a bullish zone and rise back to $72.00 and more.
- The next big wave of sell-off will be if spot silver trades below $62.90 in the whole of the USA session any day till next weekend to $60.98 and more.
- Spot silver is caught between medium-term support and short- term bears at the current price. If you are not near the trading terminal, then avoid intraday trading in silver.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
- Low risk traders and low risk takers trading in silver (spot, futures, and ETFs) should preferably be intraday traders till the end of June. I expect a big gap to open in Asia (Singapore open) every day till the end of June in spot silver.
- A systematic investment plan (SIP) or a monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
- Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
- Please assess your own risk profile if you intend to do a derivative trade in silver or trade in silver futures in any commodity exchange of the world.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE