Short covering due to Unfix buying in copper is one of the reasons for the current rise. Most will not agree with this view. Historically, sustained backwardation in any metal implies massive Unfix buying short covering, apart from momentum and supply worries.
- US imports of refined copper hit a record 225,094 tonnes in July.
- Traders have spent the year moving copper into the US ahead of a 15% duty on refined imports proposed for January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028.
- Comex holdings have grown 53% in 2026 while Shanghai’s have fallen 57%.
Investment demand in copper futures and all forms of copper investment is rising with the passing of each day. Zinc and aluminium are also seeing new historical highs every week. AI demand outlook and grid upgrade demand outlook is ensuring big physical brokers keep physical non-ferrous metals away from any commodity exchange. USA under Trump has captured over forty percent of officially available copper.
Speculative demand or investment demand is contributing over ten percent of the current price. Social media says that Trump can cut capital gains tax on short-term trading. Any such rumours becoming true will start a new wave of rise in precious metals and non-ferrous metals.
In my view, copper should see a big fifteen percent to twenty percent sell-off anytime after mid-November 2026 to Mid April 2027.
But before the so-called correction, copper LME can rise to $18170 and $22200 if copper manages to break and trade over $14972.80 for three full consecutive weeks. $12800 is now the long-term support (twelve months or more) for copper LME.
A copper crash (if any in Q1 2027) will be accompanied by a selloff in the global AI stock crash as well. Recycling of copper and non-ferrous metals will come into view due to a bullish price outlook. There can never be correct production estimates of global recycled copper. Copper production forecasts by the International Copper Association need not be blindly relied upon for decision-making. Variance could be more than generally accepted norms.
I do not expect any interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week and at the end-of-October meeting. Precious metals traders should ignore the interest rate hike view and focus on key short-term support. Central banks are buying physical gold every day. They are not donkeys. Central banks are investing in physical gold for the long term. We all should ape the central bankers.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $67.49
- 100 day simple MA: $66.16
- 200 day simple MA: $73.20
- Key intraday resistance: $70.15
- Key intraday support: 66.90 and $66.06
- TODAY: Spot silver has to trade above $67.42 to continue its rise and target $70.15 and more.
- Immediate support is around $66.90. Sellers will be there if spot silver trades below $66.90 today, both in London and Newyork.
- TILL NEXT WEEK: However, a daily close over $67.46 today, tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday should result in $73.50 and more just before the next FOMC or just after next week's FOMC.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
- Low-risk traders and low-risk takers trading in silver (spot, futures, and ETF) should preferably be intraday traders till 19th September.
- A systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
- Derivative trading in silver is not for low-risk takers.
- Please assess your own risk profile if you intend to do derivative trading in silver or trade in silver futures on any commodity exchange in the world.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided are purely an independent viewpoint and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or deemed to accrue to me from providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on this advice, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity futures. I do not trade in CME futures or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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