Asian Metals Market Update for 15th July 2026

July 15, 2026

Gold and silver are caught between long-term bulls and intraday bears. The longer gold price trades over $3830 or does not fall below $3830, the greater is the chance of $4550+ in the near term. A crash or sell-off in spot gold will occur if spot gold does not break $4260 by the first week of August. If you have a gold investment in any form, you need not worry. If you are an intraday trader or a very short-term investor in gold, then remain on the sidelines.

This current week, on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, Non-ferrous metals like copper, zinc, and aluminum are supporting gold/silver prices. Gold and silver prices would have crashed but for a technical breakout rally in copper and zinc. US June CPI number indicates that interest rates will not be raised this year. Most do not agree with my view. I will favor an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve if WTI/Nymex crude oil trades over $87/barrel for five consecutive weeks.

Kalshi, a prediction markets platform that allows people to bet on events such as sports, election outcomes, and weather, aims to expand into never-expiring derivatives products covering areas including metals, foreign exchange, and energy markets. In May, Kalshi launched the USA’s first perpetual futures contracts for crypto trading, after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) cleared the decks for registered U.S. trading venues to offer such contracts. Now, the platform is seeking approval from the regulator to launch those offerings in other asset classes, the executive said. The company is ⁠in advanced discussions with regulators, seeking approval to expand perpetual futures to other asset classes including foreign exchange and energy. "Gold is something that's coming up because it’s retail-friendly. Our participants skew towards the retail side, but also institutional."

Perpetual futures contracts, also called "perps," are futures contracts without expiration dates. This means investors can hold positions in an asset indefinitely rather than closing them out or rolling them over. Perps also allow traders to borrow heavily, sometimes as much as 50 times the value of the contract, to amplify their bets.

Critics have warned that these types of contracts are risky for retail investors who may not fully grasp their complexity and could be exposed to heavy losses if prices move against them even by a small amount. CME's outgoing CEO Terry Duffy in June criticized the CFTC for allowing the rollout of perps, calling the products a "disaster waiting to happen."

(The above has been copied from an article in “Reuters.com”)

Meta is planning to launch its own prediction market app to compete with companies like Kalshi and Polymarket in a booming sector that some analysts project could become a $1 trillion industry in the coming years. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has instructed a team to start building a standalone app called Arena where people can guess the outcome of real-world events, according to two employees who were not authorized to speak publicly about the project.

MY VIEW: Impact on gold, silver and copper market from perpetual futures and inclusion of gold and silver in prediction market trade: Long-term trend is bullish, hyper bullish (five years or more) will be even a mild world. BUT BUT BUT one-way price moves will be far longer than most of us expect. For example, since 2003, whenever silver price has risen 4X or more in less than twelve months, it has been followed by a 2X to 3X correction as well. With prediction market trade and perpetual futures trade, silver price can rise 8X and trade over 8X (from the bullish price point) and trade over 8X price for twenty-four months or more without any significant bearish price trend. There is no cost of carry or rollover cost for anything in perpetual futures and prediction markets as well. Standard technical analysis will be useless. RSI over 90 or RSI below 30, say in silver, can be there for a few months to a few years. Price will be controlled by a very large group. Economic data release, changes in interest rate outlook, etc will have a zero impact. Big money players will rule and dictate the price.

We need to adjust to the way in which future price will be dictated. We have to make profit on our trades and investment. Herd price move, Herd price boom, Herd price bust will reach planet Mars. Kids born after 2010 will be making their first trade in a prediction market in the future and not in stocks listed on a stock exchange. Adapt to the polymarket or prediction market or perish. The onus is on me, you and everyone.

I will be cautious on copper and non-ferrous metals for the next three months. I understand that momentum is hyper bullish, with a price rise of over fifteen percent highly possible in the next three months. Why? Chinese economy is slowing down. Chinese real estate prices have sunk. Large hedge funds have cornered most of the physical stock as inventory in the USA. If and when they sell, copper will crash, albeit temporarily. I have also observed that whenever AI stocks fall in the USA, copper prices remain firm or fall by a negligible amount. Copper is a part of AI stock play.

To Indians, the festival of Diwali is less than a hundred days away. On a purchasing power parity basis, we will need to spend twenty percent more this Diwali. Plan your short- term trade and short-term investment (with less risk) so that you are able to achieve Diwali spending with zero debt.

Profit and only profit matters. How you achieve it legally is what counts. Current market circumstances are seeing opposite direction between short-term and long-term in every asset class. Asset class churning is also very frequent. Trade very carefully.

Spot Silver – Current Market Price $58.46

50 week MA: $64.83 (this is the key short term resistance)
100 week MA: $48.66. (This is the key support for the rest of the year.)
Key intraday resistance: $59.05
Key intraday support: 57.54
INTRADAY VIEW: Spot silver has to trade over $57.54 to rise to $60.05, $60.51, $61.21 and more.
An intraday sell-off will be there only if spot silver trades below $57.54 in the USA session.
There is a key support on every $0.50 fall between $55.50-$57.50 zone in spot silver.
Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
Low-risk traders and low-risk takers trading in silver (spot, futures, and ETF) should preferably be intraday traders till the end of August. I expect a big gap open in Asia (Singapore open) every day till the end of August in spot silver.
A systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
Please assess your own risk profile if you intend to do derivative trading in silver or trade in silver futures in any commodity exchange of the world.

DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided are purely independent viewpoints and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.

The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on this advice, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.

I hope that our reader is well aware of the risk involved in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME futures or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT