Copper zoomed yesterday. Gold and silver have risen after the completion of the soccer World Cup. I believe that there will be a FOMO rally in gold and silver if there is a bullish trend for the next two days. Either way, if non-ferrous metals rise, gold and silver price falls will be met with large-scale buyers.
Interest rates will not be raised by the Federal Reserve next week. There is no US economic data release for the next seven days. WTI/Nymex crude oil has to trade over $85-$87 till end of August for any minor chance of an interest rate hike at the September meeting of the Federal Reserve.
Trump is back to his usual antics of new and higher trade tariffs with every country. Iran war has not ended in the way he wants. Central banks are increasing gold reserves and will continue to do so till Trump ends his trade tariff drama.
Three global elections are coming up by November:
- Israel
- Russia Duma
- US Senate
All the above elections are critical for the world. (i) If Netanyahu does not get re-elected, then the Iran War will see a permanent end. (least likely as of now.) (ii) If Anti-Putin gets a majority in Russia’s Duma, then the chance of a nuclear attack on Ukraine will be very high, and/or Russian bombardment of civil areas of Ukraine will increase multi-fold.
If republicans get a massive majority in US Senate elections, then the world will become a puppet in the hands of Trump. Long-term pace of rise of gold/silver will double. Permanent regime change in Iran will be sooner than most of us expect.
All the above three political uncertainty makes me believe that i should remain invested in gold and silver.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $59.43
- 50 day simple MA: $64.61
- Key intraday resistance: $60.04 and $63.26
- Key intraday support: 57.84 and $58.84
- INTRADAY VIEW: Spot silver can rise to $60.80, $64.61 as long as it trades over $57.84.
- Overall, spot silver is bullish as long as it trades over $55.75.
- If spot silver rises today and tomorrow, then the chance of a FOMO rally to $70.40 (by next week) will be high.
- A daily close below $57.04 for three consecutive trading sessions is needed for a new wave of sell-off and to fall below this month’s lowest price.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
- Low-risk traders and low-risk takers trading in silver (spot, future and ETF) should preferably be intraday traders till the end of August. I expect a big gap open in Asia (Singapore open) every day till the end of August in spot silver.
- A systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
- Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
- Please assess your own risk profile if you intend to do derivative trading in silver or trade in silver futures in any commodity exchange of the world.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided are purely independent viewpoints and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on this advice, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is well aware of the risk involved in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity futures. I do not trade in CME futures or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEAN HOLDS ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLARS UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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