The trend is bullish for gold, silver, and copper. In the June-July months, we have seen bullion prices crash whenever (i) there is a new artificial intelligence IPO or futuristic technology company IPO. (ii) US stock markets see a big plunge. Apart from technical factors.
The next six weeks are summer months in the USA, UK, and Europe. Traditionally, thin trading volumes are there in bullion at this time. But with a bear trend in bullion over the last three months, I believe the world is looking for indications of a restarting bullish trend in bullion and/or hints of a bottom formation. Short-term hot money or December-January (2026) type one-way price move will be there if and when a confirmation of a medium-term bottom formation is there.
CME Group has started offering its 1-ounce gold futures contract around the clock, seven days a week. Further, last week, Kalshi filed with the CFTC to launch perpetual gold futures or contracts with no expiration date. My experience is that a new product offering in any asset class is launched whenever they are in a bullish trend for a few years. The above two developments only solidify my long-term bullish trend and higher long-term target.
Investors should focus on the two-hundred-week simple moving average. Ability/inability to trade over the two-week simple moving average will decide the long-term trend.
Federal Reserve meeting will be relevant for precious metal traders only if something new is commented on interest rates and inflation by the Federal Reserve chief.
Intraday traders trade carefully with strict trailing stop loss. Unexpected price moves can occur depending on news flow in the Iran War and crude oil price trend.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $59.41
- 50 day simple MA: $63.21
- Key intraday resistance: $60.13 and $63.21
- Key intraday support: 57.67 and $58.46
- INTRADAY VIEW: Spot silver can rise to $60.24, $62.17 as long as it trades over $58.46.
- A crash or sell-off will be there only if spot silver trades below $58.46 both in London and Newyork.
- A daily close below $57.04 for four consecutive trading sessions is needed for a new wave of sell-off.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
- Low-risk traders and low-risk takers trading in silver (spot, future, and ETF) should preferably be intraday traders till the end of August. I expect a big gap to open in Asia (Singapore open) every day till the end of August in spot silver.
- A systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
- Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
- Please assess your own risk profile if you intend to do derivative trading in silver or trade in silver futures in any commodity exchange of the world.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE