The best of times to come for gold (and gold miner) investors, if you’ve survived the worst of them
Quote and image from Goodreads.com
Let’s let Charles Dickens teach us a few things about not only gold investing, but investing in general:
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… “
It is now the best of times if you’re a gold bull who has somehow managed to NOT be part of the perma-bullish herd led by those who make their bones by keeping the herds in line using dogma in the form of continual and persuasive arguments. These arguments ring true as the dogma rails against a morally and essentially bankrupt system.
There is power in that truth, but timing and market pricing are completely different subjects and as market participants we simply must be able to separate closely held beliefs (bias) from short-term reality at any given time.
With many of our (NFTRH’s) fundamental and sentiment indicators either heading toward or at ‘buy’ levels and with risk/reward very positive, it’s the best of times if you are not already loaded but preparing to or beginning to position. The technicals are not good and that is reason enough for some patience.
“…it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity…”
Wisdom in this case is the capacity to think for yourself. To do honest work and consider the same of others, to know or at least have a good idea of your own psychological profile and put the onus on YOU, not THEM to ultimately make decisions. There is enough time tested and forthright information out there.
Foolishness on the other hand is not doing the work to the degree necessary. It is putting faith in those with good promotions (one definition: activity that supports or provides active encouragement for the furtherance of a cause, venture or aim). Problem being, all too often the furtherance goes straight to the pockets of the promoters as they tug on your honest heartstrings about real money and a more honest monetary system. Noble goals, but having those goals and reaching them intact are two different things altogether.
Personally, I have epoch belief that gold has enduring value in the monetary realm, even as it is no longer official money. It is an anchor to long-term value in a system gone berserk. My latest thoughts about gold’s true value are here (8.11.22). Gold as a protector of wealth and shiner of light on just how morally bankrupt the system is, is beyond question to me.
Where I am incredulous is in seeing those who would tout this simple value asset and stir their herds up toward speculation. Every time gold does not do what these speculators want it to do or think it should do, the loud disappointment (and conspiracy theories, which are little more than excuses by the promoters) can be heard far and wide.
“it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness… “
In gold and especially gold stocks, you travel through the darkness (or better yet, wait it out) before you come to the light. In the best case for gold the season of light comes when darkness falls over most other areas of the macro markets. Although the promoters try to spin it as it’s always a good time for gold (well, it is if you know why you hold it long-term) and the miners (that’s a dark tragedy). When gold is under-performing against the inflated world of stocks and/or commodities, it is far worse for the gold miners. The reasons have been noted repeatedly in NFTRH and at nftrh.com but are beyond the scope of this article.
“it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”
Yes indeed it was, and it will be.
When stock and commodity focused casino patrons danced with joy after August, 2020 (when 3 active promoters unwittingly called the top in gold) precious metals investors entered a two year period of despair.
Today precious metals investors can actually have hope because the macro is slowly grinding into place. Again, the reasons are beyond the scope of this article, which is simply trying to make some general points about investor mindset. But we’re covering them consistently and reliably every step of the way in NFTRH because the season is changing. There may yet be perils in the short-term but the risk/reward is shifting strongly, albeit slowly in gold’s favor.
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