Trader sentiment for crude oil and energies overall is very bullish with almost everyone targeting $120+ (Nymex) in third quarter. China is closed unofficially from 27th January to 4th February.
Silver exploded to the upside. Lots of short covering. Inflation talk is still high. Markets also slowly reacting to the situation in the Ukraine and that it may not end well..
Gullible stock, bond, and real estate investors are living a fantasy that fresh QE welfare is going to be coming from their central bank sugar daddy. They need to wake up and smell the stagflationary coffee.
So, in the bigger picture, I think the market has a cap in the 4882-4960SPX region. And, I still think we should see a pullback down to the 4300-4485SPX region before we begin the next major rally..
Retail sales fell short and consumer sentiment is falling. But households hold the highest percentage of stocks ever. Previous periods of high equity ownership resulted in sharp stock market declines.
The US Dollar market is doing the opposite of what logic dictates. The problem is of course is that the Dollar has been pricing this in for several months.
