Asian Metals Market Update for 10th July 2024

July 10, 2024

There will be a push-pull between intraday bulls and intraday short sellers. Significant price fall (if any) will be met by medium-term investors in precious metals and base metals.

Crash or sell-off or fatigue among buyers will be there if spot gold does not break $2410 in the next seven days. Silver has more investment interest than gold as of now. Silver is attracting a lot of new first-time traders and first-time investors. Investment interest in silver is historical. I do not see any short-term bearish zone in silver unless global stock markets plunge. But remember that silver price busts or changes trend when we least expect it and happens like a nuclear reaction.

Copper needs to break and trade over $10,000 in the next seven days. Short selling will increase in case copper does not see a sustained break of $10,000. The next seven days are very crucial for copper and base metals from a very short-term bullish trend perspective.

Federal Reserve chairman comments in his testimony yesterday

The U.S. is "no longer an overheated economy" with a job market that has "cooled considerably" from its pandemic-era extremes and in many ways is back where it was before the health crisis, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks to Congress that suggested the case for interest rate cuts is becoming stronger.

"We are well aware that we now face two-sided risks," and can no longer focus solely on inflation, Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. "The labor market appears to be fully back in balance."

Powell told lawmakers bluntly that “I’m not going to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions" on interest rates.

MY VIEW: Central banks are aware that quick interest rate cuts or guidance for quick interest rate cuts will ensure inflation going over the roof next year. Interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be there every quarter for the next eighteen months. They will never acknowledge as it risks big short term price rise in all asset classes. They will Ensure that guess work continues on interest rate stance to prevent short term asset bubble. Central banks are comfortable with deliberate long term asset bubble creation. (as suggested by history).

COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2024 – (Current market price $456.70)

10 DAY VIEW: Copper September can rise to $446.00 on daily closing basis for the next ten days to rise to $481.50 and $501.00.
Crash or sell off will be there if copper September does not break and trade over $471.10 initial resistance in the next ten days.
Physical buyers will vanish, short selling will increase, if copper September does not break key very short term resistances.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT