More or less muted response to the Putin-Trump meeting last week. Trump's meeting with European leaders will depend on peace or continued war. Leave aside the Ukraine peace deal (if any), I do not find a single bearish factor for gold and silver aside from technical factors.
Gold and silver can see some sharp correction, but a temporary correction in price if and when there is a full stoppage of the Ukraine war. Temporary Truce (if any) will imply continued bullish trend for gold and silver.
One should trade in the technical in the next two weeks. The UK and Europe's official summer time comes to an end on 31st August every year. US unofficial summer time will come around 22nd September.
After the Federal Reserve meeting on 17th September (18th September for India and Asia), American traders and American hedge funds will start taking positions for Christmas and the New Year. I am also expecting a reduction in verbal intervention by Team Donald Trump after 22nd September.
I will not be surprised if there is a flash crash any day in gold and silver any day before Christmas due to increasing herd mentality. Be smart, sit on cash in a very small percentage of your short-term investing money. Use the crash (if any) in gold, silver, and copper to invest for the first quarter of next year.
In India, astrologers are using YouTube to give financial and investment advice. There are thousands of YouTube astrology channels of Indians or Indian origin people giving views on all kinds of investment advice. My personal suggestion is to use astrology for personal life and not for making financial investments. For example, the recent scam of Jane Street's manipulation of the Indian stock market derivatives was not predicted by Indian/Indian origin YouTube astrology channels. If astrology is everything, then they could have warned the Indian masses against Jane Street manipulation. It is your money. Losing it is easy. Cyber scamsters, Jane Street, and their aliases, paid financial astrologers, and the list is endless of people looking to erode your capital. I, we, and you are their prey because we try to catch the lowest hanging fruit or ways and means to make a big instant profit. (Disclosure/Disclaimer: A close cousin sister of mine had done my palm reading twenty years back and accurately predicted my personal life. Brilliant, I would call it. But that was only for personal life and not for any investment advice.
Non-ferrous metals and almost all industrial metals and industrial chemicals will be impacted IF IF and IFF there is a high chance of a full stop of the war between Ukraine-Russia. How much they will be impacted, no one can predict. It will be pure guesswork. Defence demand will decrease. (of selected industrial chemicals and selected industrial alloys.). Will the price fall (if any) last? I do not think so.
If your factory uses chemicals/metals which is affected by the Ukraine war, then be ready for some super high volatility in price for the rest of the year. Production cost will be impacted significantly.
SPOT SILVER – current price $38.06
- 50 day MA: $37.48
- Spot silver has to trade over $37.78 to rise to $39.06, $39.38, and more.
- A mild sell-off will be there if spot silver trades below $37.78.
- For spot silver to crash, it needs to trade below $37.38 for a minimum of three consecutive trading sessions. (anytime in the next three weeks).
- There can be some very sharp two-way price moves.
- Views are intraday.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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