Asian Metals Market Update for 19th May 2025

The downgrade of the US government credit by Moody's amplifies the concerns of rising US government debt. Nations with rising debt will also see a downgrade in the credit rating of their treasuries. Trump and his unilateral trade war are all about reducing the US government debt. From a short-term perspective, all asset classes will be highly volatile, including the gold price. From a long-term perspective, Team Trump has to ensure that there is a significant reduction in US debt. If the USA is unsuccessful or any hints for it, despite the trade war, then the pace of rise of gold and silver will double.

• Average high-low gap (from 1^st April 24 to 16^th May 25): $44.13
• Average high-low gap (from 1^st Nov 24 to 16^th May 25): $52.64
• Average high-low gap (from 1^st Jan 25 to 16^th May 25): $57.83
• Average high-low gap (from 1^st March to 16^th May 25): $69.25

CME daily high-low price gap is seeing a rising trend after November 2024, US president elections. Gold price rise has been accompanied by rising intraday price range. Day traders are making good money or can make good money in intraday trading of gold. In my view, the flips flops or fear of flip flop by Trump and this team will ensure rising trend in daily high-low price gap in near dated CME gold futures.

The Golden Rule to follow, which nobody follows, is to never carry forward an intraday gold trade into the next trading day. In my view, losses are made by those gold traders who carry forward their intraday gold trades to the next trading day. Be precise about your period of trading/investment and follow it strictly with strict stop losses.

For example, a trader makes a regular profit in gold trading for say three continuous months. At the end of three months, he will consider himself the king of trading. He will significantly increase the number of lots per trade after three months, thinking he will get an invincible profit. The day the person gets a few days of overall intraday trading losses, it will trigger a chain reaction to the extent of capital erosion. I am writing this as I have seen this happening to some of my close friends this year.

There is no major US economic data release till 27^th May. USA and UK are both closed on 26^th May. It will be a technical trade till 27^th May. Position squaring and rebuilding for June month can begin anytime.

SPOT GOLD – current price $3211.40.

• Spot gold needs to trade over $3201.60 to rise to $3251.10, $3271.20, $3305.20, and more.
• A mild sell-off will be there if spot gold trades below $3201.000.
• Crash or sell off will be there if spot gold trades below $3186.00 in the USA session and tomorrow the whole day.
• There can be some very sharp two-way price moves.
• Views are intraday.