Asian Metals Market Update for 19th September

WHAT NEXT AFTER 0.50% INTEREST RATE CUT BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE

• Just trade in the technical today, tomorrow, and Monday.
• Keep a close watch on the key supports in precious metals, base metals, and energies.
• Bullish sentiment is there for gold, silver, copper, industrial metals, and energies.
• Remain on the sidelines time for intraday traders and jobbers till Monday.
• Federal Reserve policymakers see the Fed's benchmark rate falling by another half of a percentage point by the end of this year, another full percentage point in 2025, and by a final half percentage point in 2026 to end in a 2.75%-3.00% range.
• Powell said he does not see any indication of a recession or even an economic downturn ahead.
• Markets are now fully pricing in a cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed's November meeting, with a roughly 35% chance for another 50 basis point cut.
• Quarter-end position squaring and rebuilding will start from today.

Traders were expecting another 0.75% interest rate cut in the remaining two meetings this year of the Federal Reserve. Hence the correction.  Traders were expecting another 1.50% interest rate cut next year. So! Correction!

I would prefer to use all the price falls or sharp selloffs (if any) in gold and silver to increase short-term investment and medium-term investments. Geopolitical risk and other unknown factors will continue to attract all kinds of investors, and traders alike in precious metals.

Federal Reserve chairman does not expect a downturn in the US economy. Zero chance of a recession in the US economy. Copper industrial metals and silver should be in a bullish trend till the end of January 2025.

The pace of interest rate cuts will be dependent on incoming US economic data releases. The next eighteen months will see interest rate cuts in more or less every meeting by the Federal Reserve. The Bank of Japan is not going to raise interest rates for the rest of the year. Every major central bank will cut interest rates in the next one year. Inflation will not be an issue on paper. However, I expect a big asset bubble will be formed in global stock markets, in the next twelve months as risk appetite reaches Jupiter. The Herd believes in the invincible bullish trend in stock investment. (Investment to me is a period of more than twelve months.).

Israel has started a new trend in electronic warfare as it busts pagers and electronic devices used by people in the enemy region. Developments in the Middle East may impact global financial markets in case the “Organization of Islamic States” or “OIS” unites against Israel and takes a united countermeasure against Israel.

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2024 – current price $2589.30

• Key support: $2556.30
• Key resistance: $2611.10 and $2638.70
• Gold December needs to trade over $2556.30 today and tomorrow to rise to $2638.70 and $2672.50.
• A sustained fall below $2556.30 is needed to start another wave of sell off.
• A daily close over $2611.00 for four consecutive trading sessions will start another wave of rise to $2722.60 and more in the next two weeks.

Disclaimer

• The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
• The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
• I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

1. ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
2. Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
3. PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
4. PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
5. THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
6. ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
7. ALL NEWS IS TAKEN  FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
8. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE