Israel and the developments will continue to impact precious metals and base metals this week, too.
Spill over impact of the Israel War is being assessed by traders. Peace in the region is a long way. Jews are being attacked every day in every part of the world. A section of traders expects a sustained rise of crude oil over $130 per barrel in case Israel war moves to other regions and/or causes a geopolitical shift.
Thursday and Friday are key days for US economic data release. The first real test for gold bulls and silver bulls will be on the latter half of the week.
I am not talking about rising bond yields and the indirect interest rate hike which it is creating. Momentum is very bullish for global bond yields. The good thing last week was the delinking of gold and silver price from global bond yield. To me, a bubble is being formed in rising bond yield, which will prick in the next four months but not in the coming weeks.
USD/JPY or yen will rise to 152.00 and even 155.00 by the end of November if it manages to trade over 150.00. Bank of Japan is trying to make sure that there is an orderly decline in the value of the yen. Its intention is not to reverse the trend.
Day traders and jobbers can have a wild time as there can be very sharp zig-zag type price moves in precious metals, base metals and energies this week.
India to witness greatest ever wedding season. About 35 lakh (3.50 million) weddings in 23 days. Wedding season: 23rd Nov - 15th Dec 2023. Estimated Rs.4.25 lakh crore expected spend is highest ever. As per CAIT (Confederation of all India Traders). This is a copy of the tweet by CNBC India. Jewellery demand in India will continue to be very high even after the festival of Diwali. India’s gold imports will be above long-term average in October and November. Significant price falls from here, will see huge demand.
When Joe Biden met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet during his visit to Israel, the U.S. president assured them: "I don't believe you have to be a Jew to be a Zionist, and I am a Zionist." Biden, who is of Irish Catholic descent, has used similar words in the past to profess his affinity for Israel. But the moment, which has not been previously reported, illustrates how Biden's decades as one of the leading "Friends of Israel" in American politics seem to be guiding him during a defining crisis of his presidency. (This is copied from an article in Reuters news.). The implication is that a long period of war will be there between Israel on one side and Hamas and Hezbollah on the other side. Gold and silver will not test $1800 again for the next nine months with infinity as the price target.
The fall in gold and silver this morning in Asia is just a correction and not the beginning of a bearish trend. One should use sharp price fall or crashes to go long today for tomorrow and Thursday with higher trailing stop loss (do not trade and invest in gold and silver without a stop loss this week. Do not take excessive risk this week). There will be a technical breakdown if copper and base metals fall after LME opens and till days close. Physical demand for gold and silver will continue to be on the higher side today and tomorrow in India and Asia.
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2023 (current market price $1984.40)
- Key price to watch this week: $2003.90
- THIS WEEK: Gold December needs to trade over $1977.00 this week to rise to $2031.00 and $2067.70 and $2116.00.
- Crash or sell off will be there if gold December trades below initial support of $1977.00 to $1958.00 and $1938.40.
- Gold December will also crash in case, just in case $2031.00 is not broken by 27th October/Friday to $1941.00 and more.
- 200 day simple moving average around $1941.00 is the key medium term support in case there is a selloff in gold price this week.
This is a pre FOMC week. PLUS month end position squaring and rebuilding is also in place. Interest rate rise is not expected on 1st November Federal Reserve meeting. December FOMC on 13th December can see an interest rate hike if circumstances warrant.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of Chintan Karnani. In no event shall I have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: I do not trade in CME futures. I trade in India’s MCX commodity exchange.
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRADAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF THE REPORT
ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLARS UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED.
NEWS SOURCE IS REUTERS NEWS.
TRADING VIEW IS USED FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS