Asian Metals Market Update for 23rd September

September 23, 2024

A minimum one percent interest rate will be cut in the next six months by the Federal Reserve. There can be more if the US economic soft-landing concept is replaced by recession. “Soft landing” is just a narrative introduced by economists and central banks to prevent a long recession in stock investment and all asset classes. (except bonds). There is a very thin theoretical difference between “Soft Landing”, “Hard Landing” and “Recession”.

What no media tells us, is the rise in the “Unemployment Rate” due to the continued rise in migrant inflows” in USA, UK, and Eurozone. Migrants are rising. They are counted for the calculation of the unemployment rate. “Unemployment Rate” is bound to rise even if the US economy sees firm growth due to good-for-nothing migrant inflows. A 150 bps more interest rate cut in the next twelve months will be hyperinflationary for the world as speculators jerk up the price of everything. Every central bank will be cutting interest rates and not just the Federal Reserve. Hyper-global growth in the next twelve months will be at the cost of hyperinflation.

Gold and silver are rising over unknown fears of the extent of escalation of the Israel conflict. The Russia-Ukraine war is not yet over. Uncertainty is there on the next president of USA. Hyperinflation's earliest indication will be if there is a big rise in October month in copper, base metals, crude oil, and natural gas.

Position squaring and rebuilding will be there for the US September nonfarm payrolls on 4th October. Quarter-end position squaring and rebuilding will continue this week too.

It is all about momentum and profit-taking (if any) till 30th September. China is closed from 1st October to 7th October. Economic stimulus by China is expected to be announced by 7th October.

COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2024 – current price $3144.50

Key weekly support: $2963.50, $3007.00, $3062.10 and $3109.30
Key weekly resistance: $3236.50, $3293.50, $3381.70 and $3525.00
Silver December can rise to $3525.00 and more this week or next week as long as it trades over $3040.00.
Crash or sell off will be there if silver December does not break $3256.70 by 4th October close.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT