- Trump has agreed to delay imposing a 50% tariff on European goods until July 9.
- US president says that his policy was aimed at promoting the domestic manufacturing of tanks, not sneakers and T-shirts. USA does not need a booming textile industry.
- Trump says that we want to make military equipment. We want to make big things. We want to do the AI thing with computers.
Looking beyond trade tariff, Trump will ensure that world is in a continuous state of geopolitical uncertainty. Under Trump, world be will be forced to buy outdated, hyper expensive military equipment. Asia, (including Japan) will see increasing allocation of higher percentage of a nations GDP to defence expenditure. The pace of rise of gold will vary, but eventually gold price will rise as long as Donald Trump is the president of USA.
10th July is the key for Asia. By 10th July world will know the quantum of trade tariff which USA will impose. How much nation will bow to the whims and fancies of Trump. We need to very careful of our short-term investment till 10th July. I repeat, long term nothing changes (n gold, silver and copper) irrespective of what Trump does or undoes.
I expect a Topsy-Turvy price move till 10th July in precious metals, non-ferrous metals and energies, bond yields, and forex markets. If trade war uncertainty persists on or after 10th July, then spot gold will easily break $4000 and also trade over $4000 on or after 11th July. Intraday and very short-term term we can follow the technical. But we need to closely observe developments which can impact our business, our investment, and our country on or after 11th July.
Trump family (sons and extended family) are travelling to every country for expansion of their own business. Pakistan is being brought over by Trump family. Many other nations will be brought over by Trump family and Trump extended family. The common man is not a donkey. He is buying more and more physical gold with every rise in price as well.
Focus shifts to US April Core PCE inflation and its impact on 18th June Federal Reserve meeting. Intraday traders and short term investors need to remain on the sidelines till the June Federal Reserve meeting.
SPOT SILVER – current price $33.44
- Spot silver has to trade over $33.16 to rise to $34.18, $34.62, and more.
- A mild sell-off will be there if spot silver trades below $33.16.
- There will be some very sharp two-way price moves in silver.
- Views are intraday.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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