Between Labor Day (1st September 2025) and Memorial Day (25th May 2026), spot gold has risen by around $2168.20, and spot silver has risen by $80.92. This has been a very impressive performance by both gold and silver. A long consolidation is needed for the next big rally. One need not worry if gold/silver sees a bearish trend for a few weeks (in the next three months). I am confident the next big rally will be double. (the rise between 1st September 2025 and 22nd May 2026.).
We all know the key support in gold and silver. Short-term hot money is out. The expense is much more than the savings for most retail households. There is negative saving as people are forced to tap into saving. Discretionary spending has yet to fall in a big way as of this date worldwide. People are using their past savings and/or taking on more debt to maintain their standard of living. The net investible funds (of retail traders) is falling each day. Retail FOMO (Fear of missing out) will not be there in any asset class, as savings are spent and not invested.
There will be a big disconnect between the actual buying price for nations and the quoted media price. Production will not resume overnight to the full capacity of different industries in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Countries will pay a higher premium to get a preferred buyer status.
Let’s not rejoice if the Iran war ends. Pain (whether economic or otherwise) generally happens after a war and not during a war.
U.S. President Donald Trump will not let countries focus on reducing inflation and will instead focus on reviving growth. I am confident that he will come up with something new to further destabilize the global economy. Gold is still the best hedge.
Sports betting is a big global industry. The soccer World Cup will attract trillions of US dollars and even much more in betting. Some short-term investments (in precious metals, futures, and OTC trades) will move into Soccer World Cup Betting. Intraday traders and very short-term traders need to be very careful in the next eight weeks in the precious metal trade and the non-ferrous metal trade.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $76.62
- 100 day simple MA: $79.33
- 50 DAY SIMPLE MA: $76.53
- Neutral Intraday trend. Intraday traders remain on the sidelines.
- TODAY VIEW: Spot silver to trade over $76.25 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise to $80.70, $83.80, and more.
- A daily close below the 50-day simple moving average around $76.53 is needed for six consecutive trading sessions for a plunge to $71.30 and $69.00.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
- Low-risk traders and low-risk takers trading in silver (spot, futures, and ETFs) should preferably be intraday traders till the end of June. I expect a big gap to open in Asia (Singapore open) every day till the end of June in spot silver.
- A systematic investment plan (SIP) or a monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
- Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
- Please assess your own risk profile if you intend to do a derivative trade in silver or trade in silver futures in any commodity exchange in the world.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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