Asian Metals Market Update for 30th September

September 30, 2024

Trend is bullish for gold and silver and copper. Rapid rise in conflict escalation between Israel and Islamic nations will ensure the continuity of bullish trend today and in October. Good US economic data releases (ISM’s and Jobs), if any, this week, will result in temporary correction and not a short term bearish zone.

Hindu festive season will start from 3rd October and continue till 5th November. It will be followed by the winter Hindu marriage season which will start after Diwali and continue till the third week of December. Indians are buying gold jewellery even at record high gold price. They will buy aggressively if and when on days there a small correction. In my view, the general sentiment is hyper bullish on gold price in India and most Indians do not see a sustained bearish trend in gold price of the coming weeks and coming months.

Big ten trading sessions ahead till 11th October.

4th October: US September nonfarm payrolls is the key. A very high number at or above 2,30,000 along a reduction in unemployment rate is needed for a sell off or a short term bearish trend in gold and silver. (Previous months downward revision to NFP numbers should not be there apart from very high NFP number.)
China closing between 1st October and 7th October can have a sporadic impact on the trend of copper and base metals.
China reopening on 8th October can impact copper and base metals. (between 8th October and 11th October).
Gold and silver price will be partly impacted on the escalation/de-escalation of conflict between Israel-Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran.

WHY ASIA NEEDS ISRAEL AND WHY WORLD NEEDS ISRAEL

Israel is fighting for survival. It is surrounded by Hardline Islamic nations who are trying the erode the existence of Israel. If Israel vanishes then, a big Islamic Caliphate will be there from North Africa. Turkey, all the way to Pakistan in Asia, parts of India, and further east in Malaysia, Indonesia and more regions in Asia.
Existential threat is there for Jews in Asia, other non-Islamic religions (except Roman Christians.). Asia will become a barbaric region if Israel ceases to exist. Lebanon was a Christian nation till 1960s and a peaceful nation. Very fast it got converted to a hardline Islamic nation. India akin to the 1960s of Lebanon. Lebanization of India had started a decade back. Shariaization of Asia is spreading like a black hole. (Mass protest against in Kashmir against killing of Hezbollah head is just one such example.)
The capitalistic world concept of “secular and minority interest” does not exist in any region or nations where Islam followers are in majority. Human Rights is non – existent. Genocide of people belonging to faith (other than Islam) is an every day event in regions where majority people are followers of Islam.
The concept of coexistence is not there among preachers of hardline Islam.

Asia and World Peace needs Israel and Jews to grow and prosper. I will not be surprised if gold give a compounded annual growth rate of over twenty five percent in the next ten years IF IF and when there is a high percentage chance of vanishing of Israel as a nation from Asia.

The petro dollar stuff was used to control crude oil price. Asia’s middle east crude oil producing nations were just pawns in the last fifty years. The subset was a conversion of middle east into a radical Islamic region. Now the USA and its NATO allies are less interested in middle east as battery metals and metals used in robotics will drive the future world. Ocean rich mineral found in sea beads of South China Sea, Bay of Bengal and India Ocean in general is the focus for USA and its NATO allies. Toppling of Bangladesh government by NATO is just the starting point. History suggests that wherever USA and its NATO allies leave (after decades of control), the region becomes a barbaric land. Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq are just endless examples. Gold demand (in all forms) will be price inelastic as Asian people have great brains.

Comex Gold December – Current Market price $2674.80

5 DAY VIEW: CME gold December needs to trade over $2636.20 to rise to $2734.80, $2801.50 and more.
Crash or sell off (if any) will be there if gold December does not break $2708.20 resistance and also trades over $2708.20 by 8^th
A daily close below $2636.20 for a minimum seven trading sessions is needed for a short term bearish trend in CME gold December.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT