Spot gold will break free from $3960-$4200 consolidation trading range and form a new range. CME Gold December starts from today. It is a four-month contract. No rollover etc. My experience since 2003, is that CME gold December future has been bullish over seventy percent of years since 2003.
I will be totally wrong if usd/jpy trades below 147.00 for five consecutive weeks. There is a correlation between yen carry trade and bullion price. I will write a detailed article on this sometime later.
USA and Japan had intervened for the first time in forex markets in history. They have said that will do it in future as well. The coordinated move reflects lack of independence of bank of Japan. Bank of Japan is now indirectly a subsidiary of the Federal Reserve. The Samurai Nation has given its central bank sovereignty to monsieur Trump.
I will be looking at trend in US retail spending in August month. Tourism revenue in USA during the soccer world cup beat the best of expectation. If US retail spending does not rise in August month, then there will be fundamental weakness.
Last week the South Korea Kospi stock index was very wild. Countries and regulators learn from each other. South Korea financial market regulators may have ignored India’s experience in the last five years. Retail investors have lost money in AI trades in the last two weeks. Risk taking generally increases multifold if and when they retail traders make losses on short term investment.
Expected the unexpected in August. Hype around Jackson hole central bankers meet in August (f any) will need to be ignored. The masses are pawns. There could be more coordinated central bank manipulation of every asset class over the coming months. US-Japan central bank collective manipulation of forex markets is an indication of the future things. Long term gold price trend cannot be manipulated by central banks.
Someone in social media said that USA is writing a “Bretton Woods Agreement 2” under federal reserve chairman Walsh and Trump. Bond yield price moves are indicating this only.
Intraday traders trade carefully with strict trailing stop loss. Unexpected price move can be there depending on news flow.
Spot Silver – Current Market Price $58.50
200 week simple MA: $52.43 (this is the key support till end August).
Key intraday resistance: $58.76 and $60.72
Key intraday support: 57.10 and $58.08
INTRADAY VIEW: Spot silver has to trade over $58.10 today and tomorrow and Wednesday to rise to $60.72 and more.
Crash or sell off will be there only if spot silver trades below $58.10 both in London and Newyork.
Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
Low risk traders and low risk takers trading in silver (spot, future and ETF) should preferably be an intraday trader till end August. I expect a big gap open in Asia (Singapore open) every day till end August in spot silver.
A systematic investment plan (SIP) or monthly SIP (physical or ETF, your choice) is the best way to invest in silver for the low-risk takers.
Derivative trading in silver is not for the low-risk takers.
Please asses your own risk profile if you intend to do derivative trade in silver or trade in silver future in any commodity exchange of the world.
DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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