Everyone knows that gold and silver will rise this year. There are more bullish reasons that bearish reasons for the bullish trend this year. I need not mention the reasons. All the daily reports and views mentioned by various writers on www.goldseek.com give us clear reasons why the bullish trend will be there this year and over the coming years.
My focus is now on how to make profit with short-term trading, short-term investing in gold and silver. My area is spot gold, spot silver, and comex futures. There is a difference between long-term investing and making a trading profit or encashing on short-term trading opportunities. In the post-COVID pandemic world, there are more very short-term traders than long-term investors in all asset classes. Risk appetite has increased multifold and is commensurate with very high return expectation. Most of the traders are technical traders. They use strict trailing stop losses. They are not averse to booking a loss in their short-term trade.
We have to beat the technical trader. Most people know the key moving average supports/resistances, RSI conditions, Bollinger band levels, swing trading strategies among other technical. These technical are all over the internet or in the commonly used www.tradindview.com technical charts. Winners will be those who are able to beat the so-called hardcore technical traders by (i) Going with the flow and (ii) Going against the flow using trailing stop losses in both cases.
My experience over the past twenty years, is that a single bad trade in a quarter still erodes most the trading profit of the quarter with sometimes a capital reduction. I start my first “Asian Metals Market Update” of 2024, with a caution message to day traders, short term traders. Please do not move away from standard investing rule. I am old school w.r.t risk taking. I have experienced huge losses and huge profit in short-term trading. I understand the nuances.
The first real test of 2024 is today for bulls of gold, silver and copper. Jobs are the key. Slower hiring, an increase in the unemployment rate is needed for quicker interest rate cuts. Interest rates will be cut by the Federal Reserve this year and most central banks. Now the global focus is on the pace of interest rate cuts and not the actual cut. Geopolitics in the Middle East, Red Sea region will also impact all safe havens and the US dollar but only in small phases.
Travel data and holiday spending data from China indicate a sharp rise in Chinese retail spending this year. Chinese travelers could be one of the largest group in the Eurozone, East Asia and the USA in this year's summer. Domestic travel within China is also expected to see a sharp jump this year. More and more economic news (from China) indicates stronger retail spending and more hiring. Copper and base metals may fall in the short term due to correlation with the US dollar and stock price but in the end, I am hopeful of a very strong rally on or from the second quarter of this year. Physical buyers and physical sellers have to be a bit extra careful till the end of March.
I would prefer a buy-on-crash strategy in gold, silver, copper and crude oil.
How to trade the US December nonfarm payrolls at 7:00 pm Indian Time
NFP below 100,000: Bullish for gold and silver till 11th January or just before December CPI.
NFP between 110,000-160,000: Trade in the technical. Spot gold will crash only if it trades below $2026. Spot silver will crash only if it trades below $22.50. Comex copper will crash only if it trades below $378 after NFP.
NFP over 220,000 along a fall in unemployment rate: Crash or sell off first. Thereafter it will depend if spot gold manages to trade over $2000 and spot silver manages to trade over $22.00.
Spot Gold (current market price $2045.20)
- Daily support: $2004.40, $2022.40, $2036.10
- Daily resistance: $2051.30, $2068.10 ad $2092.00
- Spot gold has to trade over $2036.00 to be in an intraday bullish zone and target $2092.20 and $2110.60.
- Mild sell off will be there if spot gold falls below $2036.00.
- Crash or sell off will be there if spot gold trades below $2026.00 after NFP and till days close.
- Quick rise will be there if spot gold trades over $2058.70 after NFP and till days close.
Spot Silver: (current market price $23.08)
- Daily Support: $22.42 and $22.76 and $22.90
- Daily Resistance: $23.39, $23.62 and $25.28
- Spot silver has to trade over $22.50 to rise to $24.41 and $25.28 (by next week).
- Crash or sell off or technical breakdown will be there if spot silver trades below $22.50.
- I am against new short selling unless spot silver trades below $22.50 in USA session any day.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views o the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be consider7ed as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani Website www.insigniaconsultants.in.
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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