Asian Metals Market Update for 5th October 2023

Fall in crude oil price should be bullish for gold and silver. There will be a sharp rally if gold and silver do not fall below $1808 and $20.50 by 12^th December. The next one week is very crucial from a short term perspective. Long term investors, if you have yet to invest start investing today in gold and silver and further of any five percent dip.

Traders are obsessed with rising US bond yield. Rising bond yields also indicates upcoming severe slowdown and slight chance of a sustained recession. Gold is the best hedge against a global slowdown and global recession.

Exporters in India are telling of reduced order in hand suggesting slowdown. Local Indian demand is robust for industrial materials and industrial metals. Strong Indian growth will imply a robust gold jewellery and rising physical gold demand and bullion demand.

I will prefer to shift away from my focus from rising bond yields and rising US dollar index and prefer to focus on economy and economic policies and central bank measures (other than interest rates.)

Spot Gold (current market price $1828.40)

• Daily support: $1804.20, $1813.10 and $1822.00
• Daily resistance: $1837.90 and $1854.70 and $1888.40
• Spot gold has to trade over $1813.10 till tomorrow close to rise to $1854.70 and $1888.40.
• Crash or sell off will be there if spot gold trades below $1813.10.
• There will be a quick rise if spot gold manages to trade over $1829.00.

Spot Silver: (current market price $21.21)

• Daily Support: $20.30 and $20.70 and $21.00
• Daily Resistance: $21.40, $21.80 and $22.50
• Spot silver has to trade over $20.68 to rise to $22.50 and $23.10.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if spot silver trades below $20.68 till tomorrow.

PAST FOUR YEAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT INVEST IN OCTOBER FOR YEAR END.

If you closely look at the above data, it indicates that year end closing price has been much higher than the lowest price of October for the past four years. If history repeats itself this year, then I will prefer to use all the price crash (from current levels) to invest for Christmas and year end.

October has just started. Price has crashed in the first three trading sessions of October. Will there be more sell off or not remains to be seen. But use the sell off to invest with a higher trailing stop loss below October lowest price.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of Chintan Karnani. In no event shall Chintan Karnani have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: I do not trade in Comex futures or spot gold and spot silver. I trade in India’s MCX commodity exchange.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.