Trump is not sparing his closest allies in Asia. South Korea is a close friend of the USA. Trump's weeding out of illegal immigrants from the Hyundai auto plant in the USA will create long-term friction between the USA and South Korea. There is a speculation that the Japanese prime minister has resigned due to the lopsided USA-Japan trade deal in favor of the USA. The foreign policy of the USA does not change with a change in US presidents. Trump, along with his European friends, is laying the foundation for colonial rule worldwide. Another example, there is speculation in India that Norway is trying to interfere in the Bihar state election to be held soon. In Srilanka, it was Norway who openly supplied money and arms to the LTTE. Bangladesh and Pakistan are indirect colonies of Trump and his cabal. In the long term, China-India Asian unity efforts will be there. Asian political leaders have understood it. Asian central banks will continue to increase gold reserves, silver reserves, and reduce investment in US treasuries.
Gold @$4000 an ounce is more or less a done deal. The general perception is that the gold price will rise to $4000 very quickly in the near term. Silver price bullish sentiment continues to rise with each day.
US August Non-farm payroll indicates that interest rates will be cut at a quicker pace. I will not be surprised if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates between 0.75% to 1.00% by December.
We need to focus on changes in investment demand and changes in net longs and net shorts to determine the short-term trend of gold and silver. (apart from technical). Jewellery demand and jewellery demand trend globally will not tell us the short-term trend.
The average near-dated CME gold futures intraday high-low price gap between 1st June 2025 to 5th September is around $50.00. This implies that the gold price is a day trader's paradise. In my experience, intraday traders of gold generally trade for a profit of not more than $20 per trade. Any narrowing of the intraday high-low price gap (if any) in CME futures will also cause a sell-off in the gold price. Intraday trading volumes will reduce in gold if intraday volatility reduces. One needs to keep a close watch on the daily high-low price gap and subsequent trend.
There is no negative factor for gold and silver. This cannot continue for infinite days. There has to be some negative news to create a short-term bearish phase. (I do not call a technical correction a bearish factor.) All asset classes in the USA are rising at the same time (precious metals, bond yields, bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies, etc). A sustained weakness in the US stock markets is needed for a crash in precious metals and non-ferrous metals.
I expect the Federal Reserve meeting (on 17th September) to be a damn squib. All the negatives on the US economy and US interest rates are already factored in. Stop focusing just on the Federal Reserve meeting for now.
SPOT SILVER – current price $40.59
- Spot silver needs to trade over $40.25 on a daily closing basis to be in a very short-term bullish zone and rise to $41.84, $42.81, and more.
- A crash or sell-off will be there if spot silver has a daily close below $40.25 for four consecutive trading sessions.
- Spot silver will also crash if it does not break $42.81 in the next two weeks. (This is just a technical view.)
- There can be some very sharp two-way price moves.
- Intraday traders and jobbers should remain on the sidelines.
- Views are intraday.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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