In the past I have observed that a certain portion of US nonfarm payrolls gets factored in after the release of ADP jobs numbers and challenger job cuts. Trader’s reaction and market reaction have been muted in the past few months. To me trend till 7:00pm tomorrow is the key for all metals and energies.
Industrial metals will shift focus from Christmas demand (from Monday) to demand in the Chinese New Year which is coinciding with Valentine day on 14th February 2021. Chinese retail spending outlook will be the major mover for industrial metals from next week. If covid gets reduced all over the world (including China), then the world will experience the best February spending in history. Chinese New Year+ Valentine day retail spending could surpass even the best of forecast. This is the one the reason why Industrial metals will keep on rising for the rest of the year. I am optimistic.
Chinese retail gold demand and Chinese retail silver demand (jewelry and other forms) should beat the best of forecast. Gold and silver is a buy on sharp dips partly due expected massive upcoming Chinese demand in the month of February. Valentine day also gets good gold, diamond and platinum jewelry demand. My personal favorite has always been platinum jewelry and I expect platinum jewelry demand in February to near gold jewelry demand and even surpass gold jewelry demand.
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2021 – current price $1842.20
- Key resistance is at $1850.40.
- Gold has to break and trade over $1850.40 to rise to $1875 and $1897.10.
- Gold will be vulnerable to sharp corrections as long as it does not break and trade over $1850.40 to 1819.60 and $1800.10. (not scaring you. But this is the technical view)
COMEX COPPER MARCH 2021 – current price $348.93
- Key resistance is at $355.40. Copper needs to break and trade over $355.40 to rise to $380.00.
- Copper will be vulnerable to a fall to $338.00 and $328.00 if it does not break and trade over $355.40 by tomorrow.