I have been a silver bull all my analytical life on long term demand fundamentals and its exceptional future uses. Except for 2020, all my silver investment calls bombarded in the past decade. Even in 2020, I had written a silver price forecast for the “Art of Jewelry” magazine in India September 2020. (price forecast was till Easter of 2021). I was very bullish on silver price. The same also bombarded. In 2021, I told myself that I will keep my bullish silver price forecast to myself and not go in public. The redditt silver saga has made me change my mind.
Readers of my articles in www.goldseek.com know my bullish view in silver since 2005. Retail investment interest in silver has been way less than my expectation in the past decade. Every one invests in gold exchange traded funds (ETF). Every year new gold ETF’s are launched. How many silver ETFs are launched every year? Zero to a few. A big country like India does not even have a silver ETF. Why? The only reason is that historical silver investment returns at the moment does not justify launching a silver ETF. India even has “Sovereign gold bonds” as a mode for gold investment for the masses. Why has India not launched “Sovereign silver bonds” as mode of investment for general public? To the common man there are very few silver investment avenues. Silver futures, silver ETF in selected countries and physical silver. (Silver mining stocks rise does not impact silver price in a big way). Physical gold is preferred over physical silver as an investment due to bulky nature of silver. Silver as a mode of investment in electronic form is limited and prone to very high manipulation.
I expect greater silver investment demand by retail investors after the redditt saga. Silver manipulation has been exposed to the masses after the redditt. They will be using sharp dips to invest in silver. The long term downside is now limited in silver to $22.00. The pace of rise of silver will be unequal. Reditt traders, I am sure they will once again make an attempt to spike up silver price. (after a failed attempt in the last few days). Hedge funds are now ready with all the armour and unlimited supply of money.
In my view the only way to beat the hedge funds, banks and other large speculators of silver is (a) Buy more and more physical silver or invest on physical silver. Silver ETF is paper and can be easily manipulated in the short term. In the long term physical silver will be in deficit. Retail reditt traders should invest in physical silver as much as they can if they want to beat the skin of hedge funds.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2021 – current price $2688.50
- Two hundred day moving average at $2431 is the key medium term support.
- Silver has to trade over two hundred day moving average to continue its bullish trend.
- However silver price has to trade over $28.60 till the end of comex silver March future close if it has to rise quickly and break past $3036 for $3300 and more.
- For silver bears, failure to break Mondays high of $3036 by 26th February will result in a fall to $2165. (this is just a technical view).