Contrary to what some of the dollar bulls think, one that comes to mind is Martin Armstrong, I think, has been bullish on the dollar for quite a while, and he's been on the wrong side of that for a couple of years. It's my opinion that the dollar is now in a secular bear market. The bull market that started back in 2008 topped back here in 2022.
Price is below a declining 200-week moving average, and that by itself doesn't indicate a bear market because we've had the same thing here. But what does, in my opinion, is that the multi-year three-year cycle is now making lower lows and lower highs. So you can see from this bottom, higher low, higher low, higher low, came pretty close here, but it didn't make a lower low. And then take your pick. Either this is the three-year cycle low, or I think probably this is because we had a stronger rally out of it. So I'm going to say this is our three-year cycle low.
And you can see now we have a failed three-year cycle. By that I mean the price has moved below this pivot. Now, if I go over to gold, remember the top came here in late 2022. At that exact same time, this is where gold formed its 8-year cycle low, and then it's been off the races ever since...
So I'm not in that camp that the metals are going to go sideways for a long time, not during a serious breakdown in the dollar, which I think is coming.
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