Losing track of the big picture, and getting tunnel vision on the day-to-day action, can and will cause traders to make really poor trading decisions. So, I'm going to show you how this applies to gold. Here was the eight-year cycle low, it came at the end of 2015 - this was the end of the bear market. It started here in 2011. Since that bottom, we'd been in a secular bull market. Price has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows. And then, this was our last eight-year cycle low right here. And that kicked off the breakout from this huge cup and handle pattern. We got this very strong, trending move higher and we are now in the advancing phase of a new eight-year cycle. Over here, we were in the declining phase of the eight-year cycle. So, you would expect that there would be at least one failed yearly cycle during the declining phase, and that's exactly what happened.
We are still very early in this eight-year cycle, we're only two years in. I would not expect a top of an eight-year cycle until at least four years go by, and it's probably going to be six for this 8-year cycle. We're really probably not going to look for a top until 2028. As long as that remains in effect, then any long position in the metals is going to be a winning trade. And that means you don't have to time your entries perfectly.
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