Stock Market
The Captain’s daily SP500 chart.
The Captain’s weekly SP500 chart.
Analysis:
We have now adopted our alternate count, which suggests that all of wave (iii) is now complete at the 7816.70 high and that we are now falling in wave (iv), which has the following retracement levels:
23.6% = 7113.03.
38.2% = 6677.71.
We expect significant weakness in this market over the next month or so as wave (iv) continues to develop.
Wave (iv) should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave (iii) rally. After wave (iv) ends, we expect another run to all-time new highs in wave (v) to complete all of wave v and V.
Active Positions: Long SPXS (SP500 leveraged bear fund), risking to 23.90!
Oil
The Captain’s weekly oil chart.
Analysis:
Wave ii ended at the 54.89 low and we are moving sharply higher in wave iii. Within wave iii, we have completed wave (i) at the 119.48 high and wave (ii) at the 64.90 low. We are moving higher in wave iii, which an initial projected endpoint of:
iii = 1.618i = 255.52.
Our current projection for the end of wave (iii) is:
(iii) = 1.618(i) = 171.47.
Within wave (iii), we completed wave -i- at the 93.50 high and wave -ii- at the 74.24 low. We are moving higher in wave -iii- of (iii) of iii, which has an initial projected endpoint of:
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 117.05.
Wave -iii- is subdividing, as described in our Daily Posts, and we likely completed wave .iii. at the 106.75, or it could be extending, although after it ends we expect a wave .iv. correction. After wave .iv. ends, we expect another rally higher in wave .v. to complete all of wave -iii-.
In the long term, we are rallying in wave C that has the following projections:
C = A = 153.77.
C = 1.618A = 244.78.
Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as our stop!
Gold
The Captain’s weekly gold chart.
The Captain’s daily gold chart.
Analysis:
We are working on the assumption that all of wave (iv) is complete at the 3944.20 low and if that is the case then we are starting to move higher in wave (v). Within wave (v), we completed wave *i* of -i-, at the 4697.70 high and we are moving lower in wave *ii* of -i-, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 4321.00.
61.8% = 4232.00
We have entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave *ii*, perhaps at the 4235.10 low, and the start of another rally in wave *iii*!
Projections for the end of wave 3 are:
3 = 2.618(1) = 5936.00.
3 = 4.236(1) = 9033.60!
Active Positions: Long, with puts as our stops!
Thanks,
Captain Ewave & Crew
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