Gold
The Captain’s long-term gold chart.
Analysis:
The Captain is a significant buyer at these levels.
Wave (iv) is still underway, as shown on the chart.
We should still be falling in wave *v* of our wave -c- diagonal triangle formation, which should be getting close to completion. Wave (iv) has the following retracement levels:
23.6% = 4539.80.
38.2% = 3886.80.
We have reached our 38.2% retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave (iv) and the start of another rally in wave (v).
Our alternate count is that wave (iv) could still become more complex, and in this case, we are only working on wave -a- of (iv). After wave -a- ends we expect a wave -b- rally.
Wave (iv) could still become a flat or irregular type correction and after wave -b- ends we expect a wave -c- drop back to at least the wave -a- low, before all of wave (iv) ends.
If wave (iv) becomes a large bullish triangle then it will consist of 5 legs, and we will NOT return to the wave -a- low, before all of wave (iv) ends. Wave -b- must consist of at least one three wave pattern, but it could have up to 3 such patterns, separated by a wave *x*.
Projections for the end of wave 3 are:
3 = 2.618(1) = 5936.00.
3 = 4.236(1) = 9033.60.
Active Positions: Long and adding more, with puts as stops!
Silver
The Captain’s weekly silver chart.
Analysis:
In the short term, we have now reached major support at the 49.56 level. Silver has also become oversold.
The Captain is excited to add to his positions here!
Wave iii ended at the 121.65 high, and it looks like wave iv has become more complex and is still underway, a shown on the chart.
Within wave iv, we appear to now be working on a double 3 wave corrective pattern, as follows:
(a) = 64.06.
(b) = 96.44.
(c) = 60.97.
(x) = 89.39.
(a) = 54.77.
(b) = 71.20.
(c) = 49.86, if complete, to complete all of wave iv.
The retracement level of wave iv is very deep, so we thinking that our alternate count is in play, which is suggesting that wave iii is still underway and, in this case, we completed wave (i) at 121.56 and likely wave (ii), at or near the current low of 48.86.
After wave (ii) ends we expect a very powerful wave (iii) of iii of 3 rally, that would see silver head to the $300 level, before it ends.
In the very long term, we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count:
1 = 49.56.
2 = 11.64,
3 projection is updated to 3 = 2.618(1) = 132.09.
Active Positions: Long through PSLV:TSX and silver futures with puts as stops!
GDX
The Captain’s weekly GDX chart.
Analysis:
All of wave A ended at the 56.67 high in 2008 and we now believe that all of wave B ended at the 12.40 low. If that is the case then we are still moving higher in wave C.
Within wave C, we have the following count:
i = 31.79.
ii = 16.18.
iii is still underway, which has a current projected endpoint of:
iii = 4.236i = 137.37.
Within wave iii, we completed wave (iii) at the 117.18 high and all of wave (iv) at the 69.74 low. Within wave (v), we completed wave -i- at 105.67, and we are still moving lower in wave -ii-, which has a last retracement level of:
78.6% = 77.43.
We do not want to trade much below of 78.6% retracement level for our current short-term analysis to remain valid, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -ii-, likely at the 75.83 low, and the start of another rally in wave -iii-.
Active Positions: Long TSE:XGD and now GDX too!
Thank-you!
Captain Ewave & Crew
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