Asian Metals Market Update for 11th September 2023

Renewed fears of continued interest rate hike and rise in US dollar index is the reason for the selloff in gold, silver, copper and base metals last week. Crude oil price rising has reignited inflation fears. No one really knows the extent of Chinese slowdown and the time period of recovery.

There will be a medium term technical breakdown if gold, silver and copper and nickel fall this week. US August inflation numbers on 13th and 14th has to come in significantly lower to thrash higher inflation bets.

## The moving average of gold and silver suggest that key very short term support need to be held for continuation of bullish trend.

Bank of Japan governor said that he hopes that Japan could move away from negative interet rate policy when inflation reaches its target of two percent. (This is just an indirection confirmation that Bank of Japan is indeed behind the recent weakness in the Yen.). BOJ governor said a newspaper it could have enough data by year end to determine whether it can end negative rates. (Year end in Japan is 31^st March 2023. India and Japan close their financial books of accounts on 31^st March every year.). Yen/usdjpy weakness could be there for another six months.

In China, August CPI rose and turned positive. China moving away from deflation will ensure a start of a bullish trend in copper and base metals. However in the short term and till 15^th October, base metals price could confuse everyone as trend can change every few hours.

Keep a close watch on the Japanese Yen and crude oil for the rest of the year.

How to trade and invest for the short term

1. Contrarian traders can use all the price crash till 13^th September (just before the release of US August COI numbers) and go long with a slightly higher stop loss. If your stop loss is hit, then good profit can be there.
2. If you want to trade in the technical use a sell on rise strategy in gold and buy on crash strategy in silver. Silver is nearing oversold. If silver crashes this week, then it has a chance of recovering fast. Gold if it falls slightly will crash.
3. Copper and base metals can be very volatile. But sentiment  is very bearish for the short term.
4. This week should be a fight between bulls and bears.

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2023 (current market price $1946.40)

• 200 day MA range: $1923.36-$1936.42
• THIS WEEK: Gold December needs to trade over $1936.40 this week on daily closing basis to rise to $1978.40 and $1994.40
• Crash or sell off will be there if gold December trades below $1936.40 to $1923.30 and $1915.70 and $1909.80 and more.
• Trend is neutral to slightly bearish.

WTI CRUDE OIL current contract (current market price $87.00)

• Key price to watch: $89.80
• Weekly View for Crude Oil: Crude oil has to trade over $89.80 key long term resistance to rise to $93.90 and $97.30.
• A daily close below $84.30 for four consecutive days is needed for crude oil to be bearish.
• Crash or sell off will be there if $94.00 is not broken by 20^th September close.

LME NICKEL SPOT (current market price $20040.00)

• 100% retracement: $19524.00
• Weekly View for Nickel: Nickel has to trade over $19524.00 for the rest of November to rise to $20626 and $21212 and $21612.
• Crash or sell off will be there only if nickel trades below $19524 for the rest of September to $18868 and more.

Over optimism and over pessimism get in quickly in all asset classes and not just precious metals and base metals. Day traders and jobbers and very short term traders need to get carried away by this carefully. This is not an easy time for short term traders and short term investors.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Chintan Karnani have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: I do not trade in comex futures, spot gold and silver etc. I trade and invest in India’s MCX future in precious metals, base metals and energies.

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRADAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF THE REPORT

ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLARS UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED.