Given the huge run-up from 2022 to 2026 (gold gained almost 200% while silver leaped almost 300%), it shouldn’t be a surprise we’ve been hit with an overdue correction.
Ira Epstein discusses the current state of the gold market, noting its bounce from the 3,900 level but emphasizing the downside bias due to its position below the 18-month moving average.
In sum, Gold is at a critical price area to hold toward regaining “The Floor” of 4000, which inevitably shall happen given Fair Value is up at 4116, (barring the Fed impossibly going on a money supply shrinkage binge).
Adam Hamilton says gold stocks need gold to turn higher first, and futures speculators are positioned for big leveraged buying, while U.S. investors keep buying gold ETFs despite the correction.
A 50% retracement of an enormous move is common for gold. In the current situation, a retracement of the move from $2000 to $5600 would put gold at about $3800.
