Asian Metals Market Update for 12th January 2024

The recovery in gold and silver (after Comex settlement price) indicates that there are buyers on dips. American traders will prefer to be long in gold and silver for the weekend and Monday holiday. There can be very sharp two-way price moves in gold, silver, and copper. But overall I would prefer a buy-on-crash strategy for Monday and next week.

The good thing is that spot gold did not fall below $2000. Spot silver did not fall below $22.00. There is no major US economic data release next week. It will be a technical trade. But still spot gold has to break and trade over the $2060-$2070 zone to continue its rise. Spot silver is a buy-on crash strategy with a stop loss below $22.00 for the end of January.

MY TAKE: Will Gold and Silver and Coper be affected by the US approval of Bitcoin ETF?

All asset classes will be initially affected by the US approval of Bitcoin ETF and not just gold, silver or copper. Over the next two quarters to three quarter, Bitcoin and crypto currencies in general will attract a lot of investment. The gold price had benefitted more when gold ETF price was launched. The same will happen to Bitcoin price. On or from the final quarter of this year, returns generated on Bitcoin ETF will decide the investment flow.

World copies US. More and more nations will now give approval to ETF of various crypto currencies. Unthinkable inflows of funds will be there in crypto currencies, crypto ETF and future news ways to invest in cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies will become a way of investment.

Gold and silver pace of rise will slow down. There are no fundamental uses of crypto currencies other than a pure speculative grade investment. Long term Fundamentals are very bullish for gold, silver, copper, and base metals. Short term pains will be long term gains for precious metals and base metals.

I will be seeing the quantum of switchover of retail stock ETF investors to crypto ETF. Total investment in gold ETF and silver ETF globally is peanuts as compared stock ETF and stock mutual funds. Crypto ETF can see short term hot money for the next two quarters. I will not be surprised if Bitcoin prices and most key cryptocurrencies double in the next three quarters. Too much money can chase too few cryptocurrencies. (as has been the case in 2020 and 2021.).

Investment return in gold, silver, and base metals will be less than cryptocurrencies. But the rising trend will be there in gold and silver. One should treat crypto ETF just as a means of investment diversification with limited exposure. I am against any huge exposure in crypto ETF or even cryptocurrencies unless your investment style is “zero or hero”.

I have always been anti-ETF all my life. I will prefer buying naked Bitcoin or cryptocurrency futures instead of a Bitcoin ETF.

Spot Gold (current market price $2033.90)

• Daily support: $2008.30 and $2022.80
• Daily resistance: $2047.70 and $2061.60
• Spot gold will has to trade over $2030.00 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise to $2063.00 and more.
• Mild sell off will be there if spot gold trades below $2030.00.
• Fifty day moving average at $2016.20 is the crash point.

Spot Silver: (current market price $22.85)

• Daily Support: $22.38 and $22.72
• Daily Resistance: $23.39, $23.96 and $24.29
• Spot silver can rise to $23.96 today as long as it trades over $22.72.
• Mild sell off will be there if spot silver trades below $22.72.
• Crash or sell off will be there if spot silver falls below $22.38 till next week.

Key US economic data till 17^th January 2024

• 11^th January: Consumer Price Index (CPI December)
• 12^th January: Producer Price Index (PPI December)
• 15^th January: Martin Luther King Holiday in USA
• 17^th January: Retail Sale (December)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani Website www.insigniaconsultants.in.

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

1. ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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3. PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
4. PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
5. THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
6. ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
7. ALL NEWS IS TAKEN  FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
8. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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