US stock markets need a falling trend between three to seven consecutive trading sessions for a short-term bearish trend in precious metals and non-ferrous metals.
A hyper bullish trend and hyper bullish sentiment are there. There are buyers on small dips and tiny dips. People are buying fearlessly in the fall, and prices rise as well. Most, I believe, are not using trailing stop losses or using very high trailing stop losses.
My biggest worry is “How long can fearless buy first sell next trading strategy continue?” I cannot make a forecast.
The general sentiment in India is that spot silver will break $100 by March. Spot gold will rise to $6000 first before any bearish trend. (This is my view of India. I may be wrong.)
I was joking to my friends that gold, silver will crash if and when there is a FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) Rally in Indian tiny caps and Indian small caps. Till then, gold investment demand and silver investment demand will continue to rise. (Please do not take it seriously. This is an intended Pun on the performance of Indian stock markets this year.
US December Nonfarm payrolls, which will be released in January month will have a greater and sustainable impact on precious metals and non-ferrous metals than tomorrow's November NFP.
Focus on Key supports for the next three weeks. Crash or sell off will be there (in gold and silver) if and only if the price trades below key support for a minimum of thirty-six consecutive trading hours. If not, then there will be another historical rise.
SPOT SILVER – current price $62.58
- Spot silver has to trade over $61.84 on a daily closing basis for the next seven days to rise and target $69.04 and more.
- A daily close below $61.84 for four consecutive trading sessions is needed for a big crash to $58.42, $54.89, and more.
- Spot silver will also crash if it does not break $66.30 by 5th January (2026).
- I would prefer to be an intraday trader than a short-term investor. I generally avoid investing in any asset class when prices reach the FOMO levels.
- There can be some very sharp two-way price moves.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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