Asian Metals Market Update for 15th January 2026

January 15, 2026

Overall bullish trend will not alter after Trump’s Executive Order. Intraday volatility will be on the higher side. Geopolitics, interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, stimulus announcement by China, Japan, South Korea, and even India over the coming weeks, will ensure a buy on dips strategy for the rest of January.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that he had opted for now against imposing tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and other critical minerals, and instead ordered his administration to seek supplies from international trading partners. If Greer and Lutnick's negotiations are not successful, Trump said he would consider setting minimum import prices for critical minerals or "may take other measures," without elaborating.

I believe that American and retail traders in the USA had started buying silver or investing in silver long before the world. Over the past few weeks, I spoke to a number of people (in India) who had close friends or close relatives in the USA. Almost all of them had invested in silver between July and August (2025), with a price target of $100+ in the first quarter of 2026. The people of India had a FOMO to buy/invest in silver only from early October 2025. It will be wrong to give credit to the Chinese demand for starting the current unending and historical bull rally in silver.

Indian’s investing changed in the last few months – My experience.

Rural India is back to investing in gold, silver, and land in a very big way. Incremental investment is falling in Indian stocks from rural India.
Young Urban India is investing aggressively in gold etf, silver etf and all forms of precious metal. This trend will continue for the next two years. (in my view.)
Every Indian portfolio has gold and silver in it in some way.
Gold coins and silver coins will continue to see a big jump in demand. People of India are buying, buying, buying!!!!!!
Short-term hot money is very big in gold, silver, and copper trading and investing in India. How? For example, one can get a bank overdraft facility at two percent per month. Gold and silver are giving returns of over four percent per month (before income tax but after brokerage charge and trading tax). People are using the bank overdraft facility to invest for short term returns in gold and silver.
People who have untaxed money or black money are converting their unaccounted cash into physical gold and physical silver.
In India, any asset class that generates a monthly return of over three percent (before income tax but after all kinds of other levies) will attract an unthinkable amount of short-term money.
Bitcoin trading and cryptocurrencies, though illegal, are very popular in India and continue to rise with each passing day.
App-based trading volume in spot gold and spot silver, or app-based OTC trades in gold and silver, is very high in India and more so in rural India. (I am not sure if these app-based trades are legal in India. I have heard that some of the trading apps use cryptocurrencies for pay-in and pay-out.)
Trending on YouTube, Instagram, and other social media forms attracts more investment than any other form of advice. I had never seen silver investment memes on Instagram or silver investment advice by hordes of Indian YouTubers before November 2025.

Physical demand and investment demand will not vanish in India. Back to traditional investing for rural India, which is hard assets. Equity investing hype is falling every month in rural India. A lot of Indian YouTubers are giving the view that the silver price will triple this year. People of India are addicted to YouTube advisors and investment advice by astrologers on YouTube. FOMO to invest in silver in India will continue.

I did not benefit much from the current physical silver rise. My investment in physical silver was around $25.00. I still have my monthly physical silver SIP. I am not one of those traders who buy the highs and/or sell the lows. I do not intend to encash my physical silver investment. I do intend to buy some naked put options in near-dated MCX silver futures if and when I see silver nearing a short-term top. I am keeping a day-to-day watch on the silver put option cost in MCX futures.

The next major event is the Federal Reserve Meeting on 28^th January. CME gold February futures are expiring on 30^th January. There can be some topsy-turvy price moves in precious metals and non-ferrous metals just before FOMC or just after FOMC. Very short-term investors and hot money traders need to be extra vigilant for the next three weeks.

Last but not least, I expect a big increase in customs duty on gold imports and silver imports in the upcoming Union Budget of India towards the end of the month. India needs to save its forex reserves or curb unnecessary forex outflows during the critical time.

Spot Silver – Current Market Price $87.35

TODAY VIEW: Spot silver has to trade over $86.00 (today, tomorrow, and Friday) to rise to $94.00, 96.09, $103.00 and more.
Crash or sell off will be there if spot silver trades below $86.00 after 7:00 pm Indian Time and till days close.
There can be some very sharp two-way price moves today.
$83.00 is the key support for the rest of January. A daily close below $83.00 for five consecutive trading sessions is needed for a crash, a sell-off, or a very short-term bearish trend.
Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.

DISCLAIMER: The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.

The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.

I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT