Asian Metals Market Update for 15th October 2025

October 15, 2025

“Diwali Greetings to everyone”. I was supposed to give a 2026 forecast for gold and silver. The current market circumstances have made me postpone the same to mid-November.

2026 Key themes for precious metals and non-ferrous metals should be:

The economic impact of the Trump-induced unilateral trade war will be felt in 2026.
Inflation will be at a historical high in the second half of 2025 if Trump continues the escalation of the trade war.
Trade War theme and Trade War-related uncertainty will not impact any asset classes (even precious metals).
Near-zero interest rates by the Federal Reserve, BOE, and ECB will be achieved much faster than the best of expectations.
US Dollar Index can make a comeback if there is a meaningful trade deal between the USA and Asian countries.
Mass unrest or the so-called “Tool Kit for Mass Unrest” will be there in every nook and corner of Asia (excluding China). Either governments will go or policies will be made to placate the masses.
If gold and silver see a virtually unstoppable rise till May 2026, then I expect a bearish trend between June 2026 and June 2027. Silver at $125.00+ and Gold at $6500+ by May 2026 will not surprise me. (I am investing every month in physical silver. I am against lump-sum investing in physical gold and physical silver at the current price. Prefer to wait till mid-November and then decide.
Global Economy could near a 1930s-type economic depression in or from the fourth quarter of 2026 if the gold price continues to rise by $100 on a weekly closing basis. (for the next fifty-two weeks).
Silver should see one big price crash in 2026. (over fifty percent from the highest price of 2026). Yet I will continue to invest in physical silver.

If anything rises over one percent every day continuously, then it will attract short-term hot money. I personally know a number of people who are trading (physical and futures) with a corpus of $3 million to $5 million (Rs. 9 crore to Rs. 30 crore). They are doing intraday trades in MCX futures and even hoarding physical gold and physical silver.

Lack of consistent returns in Indian stock markets has resulted in the ultrarich people significantly increasing investment in gold, silver, metal stocks, and real estate. Ultrarich investors invest millions of US dollars in any asset classes that give a return of over five percent per month. Established medium-sized businesses are able to generate an average of five percent per month in India. Surplus business cash is getting diverted and invested in gold and silver (physical and futures). (This is my view and I may be wrong.).

Jewelry demand for gold and silver will decrease in India from next week. However, physical silver demand for investment purposes in India is showing no signs of a significant fall. People who have invested in physical silver are waiting for signs of a top being formed so that they can sell physical silver and make a profit.

Low-end silver jewelry sales have taken a big knockdown in India. I believe that the so-called silver shortage is artificially created by social media hyper-bullish noise. I am expecting a gradual reduction in physical silver premiums from next week (in India), with a chance of a discount from the second week of November in India.

Trade carefully. Be an intraday trader.

SPOT SILVER – current price $52.20

Spot silver can rise to $55.10 and $57.20 (by Friday) and more as long as it trades over $50.40 on a daily closing basis.
Intraday crash or sell off will be there if spot silver trades below 50.50 for a minimum of twenty-four consecutive hours.
Hyper bullish retail sentiment with highly overbought technical.
There can be some very sharp two-way price moves.
Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.

The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.

I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT