Asian Metals Market Update for 17th November 2025

November 17, 2025

There will be some very sharp two-way price moves in precious metals and non-ferrous metals for the rest of November. Everyone is waiting for any big sell-off to go long. Short sellers have virtually vanished in gold and silver.

Buy stop loss getting triggered on intraday trades will not prevent people from investing in physical precious metals and physical non-ferrous metals.

Speculation is rife that the Chinese government is aggressively buying available physical gold globally as much as it can. This is for a hedge against a Trump-induced trade war. (1) The Chinese government does not publish its mined gold within China. (2). Gold reserves with the Chinese Nation are just an estimate. No One Knows the actual number. (3) Since 2003, to my knowledge, the Chinese Central Bank has been increasing its physical gold reserves. They were the first country, post Second World War, to recognize the long-term need to increase gold reserves as a hedge against the US Dollar.

Internal political fears after Mamdani’s election as mayor of Newyork resulted in the reopening of the US government. Fears of a US economic slowdown and the backlash in next year's US Senate elections forced US politicians to end the deadlock. The cost of survival is rising in the USA. Interest rate cut bets are there for December and the end of January (2026) Federal Reserve meetings.

CME gold, CME silver, and CME copper, all December futures will end in the next three weeks. (on 28th November). Ratio trade and spread trade (between gold/silver, gold/crudeoil, copper/aluminum, etc) will reduce/from December due to divergence in future expiry dates.

Delivery intention will be closely watched in gold, silver, and copper. The world will watch the delivery intention in totality, i.e., all exchanges CME, LBMA, MCX, Shanghai, Singapore, and other major gold/silver centres. There may be an October-style shortage in physical gold and physical silver if delivery intentions far exceed the available supply.

The Hindu marriage season will end around 14th December. There are very less auspicious marriage dates between 15th December to 31st March, 2026. Marriage-related demand will be less between 15th December to 31st March 2026. BUT BUT families who have a marriageable son/daughter in the next two years, have started buying gold/silver in small quantities and will continue to buy on dip and also on rise in the next twelve months. (This is my view. I may be wrong.)

Let’s ignore the chatter and focus on our trades. However, a crash or a sell-off in global stock markets will cause a sell-off in precious metals and non-ferrous metals.

SPOT SILVER – current price $50.56

Spot silver it has to trade over $49.40 on a daily closing basis this week to rise to $53.79, $56.70, and more.
A daily close below $49.40 for three consecutive trading sessions is needed for a big crash to $46.34, $45.20, and more.
There can be some very sharp two-way price moves.
Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.

Disclaimer

The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.

The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.

I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.

Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT