We have eight trading sessions (including today) left this year. Gold has traded long enough over $2000 to justify as buy on crash strategy. 2023 will be first of the many more years in which spot gold will close over $2000. Now $1800 is the lower price base with infinity as price target. Spot silver has the best chance to break $30.00 in 2024 and try the journey for $50.00. Silver has a better sentiment over gold in 2024. Industrial use of silver and preference of silver jewellery over gold jewellery in daily use will ensure rising price in 2024.
How the price behaved in 2023
- Ist week of every month: Various US jobs numbers of previous month.
- Middle of every month: US Inflation (CPI and PPI) number of previous month and/or Federal Reserve meeting and key central bank meetings.
- Last week of every month: US Core PCE inflation number of previous month.
These US numbers impacted interest rate outlook, US dollar Index and US bond yields of varying maturities. Technical factors, volumes, option market bets were all placed on the above three. There were bursts of over optimism and over pessimism in all asset classes and in every major market and emerging market. Technical played the last role. The good things was every asset class saw two way price moves. This 2023 way of price determination will be not there in 2024.
How to trade in 2024
In 2024, there should be very long periods of one way price moves, followed by consolidation and a new trend. From a gold and silver perspective, I believe that gold and silver will see a much more longer period of bullish one way price bets (than most of us expect). Technical 14 day RSI could stay over 80 for a very long period of time before the fall. Price consolidation period (in gold and silver) in 2024 will be far shorter than say 2022 and 2023.
Buy naked call option with quarter end expiry for every quarter of 2024 in gold, silver and even copper. Strike price will depend on option premium and the situation on the day we intend to buy naked call option.
There will not a price correction in 2024 in any asset class and any market. Due to extreme positioning, I expect price of sink as opposed to a correction. A la, prices reaching Marina trench (lowest point in Pacific Ocean) followed by a rise to stratosphere. Losses (if any) could be huge or unthinkable on a bad trading day in 2024. Risk should not be increased due to getting carried away by one way momentum and market chatter and social media posts. Boom period and bust period could be historical in 2024 in all asset classes and all markets.
It is not that every trader makes a profit. Some make a loss as well. Overall profit in trading is good. Occasional losses are a part and parcel of the trading cycle. One needs to ensure that the so-called occasional losses are not severe to erode profit and a percentage of capital combined.
Mental preparation has to be done just at the end of the week (and not daily) in my experience. Less than thirty minutes of mental preparation for the upcoming week will go a long way in increasing profit and reducing the so called occasional losses. At the end week when you do your meditation session, just think of the possible trading combination for the upcoming week and a bit on the trading week that just passed by.
Just trade in the technical. Trend after 3:00 pm Indian Time (GMT +5:30) is the key. There is no major US economic data release today as well. There will be buyers on significant crash on dips in gold, silver and copper.
Spot Gold (current market price $2026.70)
- Daily support: $2008.70, $2017.40 and $2022.00
- Daily resistance: $2043.80, $2063.70 and $2101.00
- Spot gold has to trade over $2017.40 to be in an intraday bullish zone and rise to $2063.70 and $2101.00
- Crash or sell off to $2008.70 and $1993.90 will be there if spot gold trades below $2017.40 after London AM Fix and till days close.
Spot Silver: (current market price $23.82)
- Daily Support: $23.61
- Daily Resistance: $24.69 and $25.58
- Spot silver has to trade over $23.61 to rise to $25.58
- Mild sell off will be there if spot silver trades below $23.61.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views o the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be consider7ed as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani Website www.insigniaconsultants.in.
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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