Trend is bullish for gold and silver and crude oil. Neutral trend for copper and base metals. Traders are long in gold and silver before the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow and bank of Japan meeting on Friday. The general expectation is that there will be a pause in interest rates tomorrow night. However, an interest rate hike (if any) can cause ripples in all asset classes temporarily.
As September comes to an end, most of the traders are focused on interest rate trend, inflation trend and economic trend of next year. My suggestion is (i) Use a buy on significant crash in gold, silver and copper to invest for next year. (ii) Short term traders, weekly traders and day traders have to be on the sidelines. Momentum trading is fine but with higher trailing stop loss. Trailing stop loss should be amount/value wise and not percentage wise.
All the factors are bullish for gold and silver for the fourth quarter except a bearish trend in US stock markets. Big crash in gold and silver will be there only if US stock markets move into a short term bearish trend. (This year US stocks have had zero impact from rising interest rates.). China’s relations has worsened with USA, NATO and India and Taiwan. Trader war with China will continue on paper. Turkey has threatened to move away from Eurozone and form an alliance with Russia, China and Iran. A new political group will be formed once the Ukraine war is over and Putin is overthrown. Gold will be the sole beneficiary and not the US dollar and any paper currency.
Total foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries climbed to $7.655 trillion in July, up from $7.562 trillion in the previous month. Compared from a year earlier, overseas holdings were up 2.2%. China's stash of Treasuries dropped to $821.8 billion, the lowest since May 2009, when it had $776.4 billion, data showed. Japan is still the largest non-U.S. holder of Treasuries with $1.112 trillion in July, up from $1.105 trillion in June. Data also showed U.S. residents increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net purchases of $36.8 billion in July.
- Daily support: $1916.00 and $1923.00
- Daily resistance: $1938.60 and $1950.00
- Spot gold can rise to $1946.40 and $1962.00 as long as it trades over $1922.60.
- Mild sell off will be there if spot gold trades below $1922.60.
- Quick rise will be there if spot gold trades over $1932.50 to $1938.60 and $1953.50.
- Daily Support: $22.65 and $23.00
- Daily Resistance: $23.53 and $24.03
- Spot silver can rise to $24.03 today as long as it trades over $22.80.
- Sellers will be there only below $22.80.
- Quick rise will be there if spot silver trades over $23.27 after London opens and till days close.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of Chintan Karnani. In no event shall Chintan Karnani have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: I do not trade in spot gold, spot silver or comex futures. I do trade in India’s mcx commodity exchange.
Notes to the above report
All views are intraday unless otherwise specified
Follow us on twitter @chintankarnani
Please note: holds means holds on daily closing basis
Please use appropriate stop losses on intra day trades to limit losses.
The time given in the report is the time of completion of report
All prices/quotes in this report are in us dollar unless otherwise specified