What now for gold and silver after central bank meetings?
- Just trade in the technical this week till the second week of October.
- Keep a close watch on the short term support and medium term support in gold, silver and copper and decide on the investment strategy.
- Crude oil, look for signs of shift in bullish momentum.
- Volatility can be high due to quarter end position squaring and rebuilding.
Interest rate hike and interest rate pause decision will be dependent on the impact of rising crude oil price on inflation and growth. Central banks are now less interested to raise further interest rate. Unless compelling circumstances are there, interest rates will not change in the fourth quarter.
Delinking of gold and silver from the US dollar is a positive sign and a bullish sign. It is buy on significant crash for me in gold and silver for end October and middle of November.
Hindu festival demand will begin from 15th October to 15th November followed by the demand for winter marriage season. Indian demand will be very high (if physical gold and physical silver price fall in India) till end November. A rising gold price and silver price will not cause a big dent in Indian demand.
Copper and base metals demand will be dependent on China’s outlook for fourth quarter.
Precious metal funds extended their outflow streak to 17 weeks, shedding $325 million. Energy funds also saw exits totaling $87 million.
Trend of US stock markets and global stock markets need a close watch. Direct correlation will be there between stocks and base metals. Silver and gold will be unaffected by trend in stocks unless stocks see a big plunge and a sustained plunge.
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2023 (current market price: $1943.10)
- 50 day MA range: $1944.80-$1952.80
- 200 day MA range: $1920.60-$1932.60
- THIS WEEK: Gold December needs to trade over $1932.60 to rise tom $1963.50 and $1974.80 and $1991.00.
- Crash or sell off will be there if gold December trades below $1932.60, to $1922.00 and $1909.80.
- Neutral trend this week but bullish trend will be subject to break of key resistance.
WTI CRUDE OIL current contract (current market price $90.03)
- Key price to watch: $93.90
- Weekly View for Crude Oil: Crude oil has to trade over $87.30 on daily closing basis to rise to $95.40 and more.
- Crash or sell off will be there if $94.50 is not broken this week to $82.70 and more.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Chintan Karnani have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: I do not trade in spot gold, spot silver and comex futures. I do trade in India’s MCX commodity exchange in precious metals, base metals and energies. I may or may not have any open position any time.
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRADAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF THE REPORT
ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLARS UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED.
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