Myths which have been busted in 2025 with regard to precious metals and non-ferrous prices:
- Not a cyclical trade anymore: Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are not cyclical trades any more. Till March 2025, most people and traders believed that precious metals and copper were more or less a cyclical play. One should invest only for a few months every year. 2025 price moves and firm price have busted the notion that commodity trade and commodity investment are more or less cyclical.
- Has to be a part of everyone’s investment portfolio: Retail participation in precious metals trade and non-ferrous metals trade was negligible till March 2025, as compared to stock trading/investing. Retail trading and retail investing have zoomed in or from April 2025 this year and continue to rise with the passing of each day. This can be gauged from rising volumes in MCX and other major commodity exchanges all over the world.
- Gold and silver are not a safe haven any more: I do not categorise gold and silver price moves of 2025 as a safe haven. Short-term price moves are driven by liquidity factors and nothing else. There is a huge speculative money in gold and silver currently. They will crash in future if and when there is a reduction in global liquidity. Safe Haven assets do not attract speculative money.
- Big jump in percentage allocation in precious metals and non-ferrous metals this year among retail investors is here to stay: Retail investors will continue to increase more allocation to precious metals and non-ferrous metals even if there are some bearish phases. Retail investors and retail investors have understood the need to increase investment in hard assets or asset classes which cannot be printed by central banks and their collaborative agencies.
I believe that the CME futures outage on Friday was manipulated to ensure the continuation of the bullish trend in gold, silver and copper. It was a manipulation by CME in connivance with some of the largest hedge funds. Global trading volumes were thin on Friday. So, the CME futures outage on Friday made me think of a conspiracy theory.
Trend and sentiment are hyper bullish on gold, silver and copper. Short sellers booked massive losses on Friday in silver and copper. Call options sellers (in silver) were forced to hedge in futures or book a loss. The general sentiment is that spot silver will rise to $100.00-$120.00 by the end of November 2026. People and traders were buying around $57.00 in spot silver without any worry.
In gold, in my view, there are negligible short positions. There will be buyers on dips as long as spot gold trades over $3970-$4030 zone. Jewellers, in my view, in India believe that spot gold will correct only after price rises first between $5500-$6000 per ounce without any major sell off. Everyone in India is buying/investing in gold even at near record high prices.
Bullish trend will be tested in gold and silver, and copper after the Federal Reserve meeting (10th December or 11th December for India and Asia) and the combined October-November US Nonfarm payrolls. (16th December). There will be a very high chance of a short-term bubble being formed if gold and silver continue to rise post-NFP till the middle of January 2026.
Trade very carefully despite all the bullish sentiment. Do not trade without a stop loss. The Christmas and New Year festive time needs celebration. One can only celebrate if one has profit and/or does not incur any losses.
SPOT SILVER – current price $57.11
- Spot silver has to trade over $57.00 on a daily closing basis for the next seven days to continue its rise and target $60.13, $62.55 and more.
- A daily close below $57040 for four consecutive trading sessions is needed for a big crash to $50.43 and more.
- Over-brought. There will be intraday short sellers if there is a falling trend in the USA session.
- Watch $57.00. Spot silver can move $3.00-$3.50 either side from $57.00 anytime.
- I am personally not making any new investment in silver at the current price. I am just holding to my investment.
- There can be some very sharp two-way price moves.
- Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Follow us on Twitter @chintankarnani
- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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