Asian Metals Market Update for 2nd May 2025

Gold bulls and silver bulls were rulers in the first four months of this year. Copper and industrial metals were highly volatile. The question arises of whether gold/silver will be able to maintain the same pace of rise (as in the January to April period) for the rest of the year. My reply is that the pace of the rise of the gold price will be slow. Gold/silver is bullish for the rest of the year, but the pace of rise could slow down. Too much short-term hot money is in gold. A slower pace of rise in gold price (If any) will reduce some of the hot money away from the gold price. Short-term investors will need to tone down their return in a short-term gold investment.

My logic is that traders will factor in the trade war and its impact. There will be less uncertainty (as compared to November 24 to April 25 months). Trump's U-turn will be there. Gold will crash or sell off. But a big ten percent crash may not be there. Wider range consolidation is historically present between May and August. I expect this trend to be repeated this year, too.

An India-Pakistan war (if any and I hope it happens) will not impact gold/silver price unless the same involves the use of nuclear weapons. US April nonfarm payrolls have to come in on the higher side of expectation to cause huge volatility in precious metals and non-ferrous metals. Lower NFP number has already been factored in by the traders.

Indian parents intend to enrol their teenage kids in trading schools and financial management schools during the school's summer vacations, which start this month. (from various dates this month.). My suggestion to parents is to teach kids expense management. Teach kids how to be debt-free in their lives. As a kid in the late 90, my mom used to ask me to manage the house expenses during the school summer break. I remember that I would spend that one month on home expenses in less than fifteen days. My mom knew it, yet she did it to teach me. (I had lost my father as a kid. Most of my life was dependent on income from investment, which was received from my father's share of the joint family property.

The technical correction was this week in gold, silver, and copper. The next big wave of sell-off will be there if and only if there is a sustained fall below yesterday’s low. Physical demand in India and all over Asia will be extremely high if the price (of gold, silver, and copper) remains firm today or before the weekend. Intraday traders still need to trade very carefully.

SPOT GOLD – current price $3251.70

• TODAY’S VIEW: Spot gold has to trade over $3216.00 to rise to $3281.90, $3326.30 and more.
• Crash or sell off will be there on a sustained fall below $3216.00 after NFP and till days close to $3193.00, $3164.00 and more.
• Views are intraday.