Back after two months due to some health issue. I will call this unilateral Trump-induced Trade Tariff war a “World War Three”. Continuous trade tariff retaliation between nations along with protectionist measures by every nation will itself be synonymous with “World War Three”. Why use arms and kill innocent lives when we kill them indirectly with a “Trade Tariff War”? This so-called “Trade Tariff War” if it continues even for a few months will impact every strata of the society towards a recessionary jungle. Gold and more so physical gold is the only hedge against the current world situation.
US president Trump has started in my view “Hitlerization of global trade”. Trump says my way or the highway on everything. Nations fear losing sovereignty due to a forced unilateral trade war by the USA under Trump's leadership. US dollar will be dumped. The invented alternative to the US dollar “cryptocurrencies” will also be dumped or blocked by non-USA allies. Cryptocurrencies were invented by the US government as an alternative to the US dollar. They knew long ago that the US dollar would get dumped. Cryptocurrencies' price moves and coding is controlled by corporations in the USA. In the long term, we have no choice but to increase investment in physical gold and physical silver.
Today and this week focus will be on the spate of US economic data releases. China and Mexico's reaction has been muted to Trump's trade tariff. Canada has reacted. Incoming news on the trade tariff war will have a far greater impact on global financial markets than US economic data releases and/or news on the global economy.
Short February month view
Spot gold: Key support: $2699.50. Key resistance: $2902.40. View: Spot gold needs to trade over $2734.70 to rise to $2902.40, $3014.30 and more. Crash or sell-off will be there if (i) There is a daily close below $2753.000 for four consecutive trading sessions.
Spot silver: Key support: $29.86 Key resistance: $32.74, $34.20. View: Spot silver can rise to $34.18 and $36.80 this month as long as it trades over $29.86.
CME GOLD APRIL 2025 – Current price $2815.60
- 7 DAY VIEW: Gold April 2025 has to trade over $2763.00 on a daily closing basis till 10th February close to rise to $2941.00 and more.
- Crash or sell-off will be there if gold February trades below $2763.00 any day in the USA session and more so after gold London PM Fix.
- Gold April will also crash if it does not break $2865.00 by the 10th February close.
Disclaimer
- The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
- The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
- I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
- ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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- PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
- PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
- THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
- ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
- ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE