One needs to look for signs of a big correction or a big sell-off between 9th October and 7th November in gold, silver, and copper. Indian demand and Chinese demand will likely disappear by November 7 at the latest. Thereafter, gold and silver demand will be there only if there is a significant price correction.
London silver inventories were sitting at approximately 135 million oz., about half of the metal’s daily average trading volume.
LME and LBMA inventories (of silver, copper, and other non-ferrous metals) can be easily manipulated by collusion between some of the world’s largest hedge funds. I have seen it in the past. Regulatory authorities are always blind to price manipulation by large hedge funds.
Get ready for a 0.50% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the next three meetings. Fed Fund rates are at 4.25%. I expect it to be 2.75% by the first week of February 2025.
Prolonged US government shutdown will imply the Fed fund rate to fall to 2.00% much quicker than most of us expect.
October copper price rise makes me believe that everything is all about short-term hot money. In case I am wrong, then the rising price trend (in precious metals and non-ferrous metals) can continue till the first week of February 2026, followed by a big, big crash.
I am expecting short-term hot money traders to exit from precious metals and non-ferrous metals by the 1st week of February 2026. However, before that, it is hard to predict how much the prices of gold, silver, copper, zinc, and aluminum will rise.
Spot gold may end the year at over $ 5,000, given the current pace of rise. Silver has a history of big price busts. But I will be thinking twice before taking a naked short in silver futures. I am not making any new investment in physical silver at current Indian price. I would prefer to take a chance and wait for the early November trend and then decide.
Last, to my Asian family, do not resort to scrap silver sales this year. Asian households have a tradition of buying physical silver (in various forms) frequently. Silver price can rise three times (from the current price) in the next three to five years.
SPOT SILVER – current price $48.31
Spot silver can rise to $49.52 $51.80, and $53.48 (this week) and more as long as it trades over $47.60 on a daily closing basis.
A crash or sell-off will be there if spot silver has a daily close below $47.60 for four consecutive trading sessions.
Hyper bullish retail sentiment.
There can be some very sharp two-way price moves.
Intraday traders and jobbers should remain on the sidelines due to overbought technicals.
Views are intraday unless otherwise specified.
Disclaimer
The investment ideas provided is purely independent view point and are solely for collective learning and for academic interests. There is no commercial benefit accruing or have deemed to accrue to me out of providing such investment ideas.
The investment ideas shared here cannot be construed as investment advice or so. If any reader is acting on these advices, they are requested to apply their prudence and consult their financial advisor before acting on any of the recommendations made here. I am not responsible to anybody in the event of profits and losses (if any) upon acting on such advice.
I hope that our reader is aware about this well aware of the risk involved in trading in commodity derivative trading.
Disclosure: I trade in India's MCX commodity exchange. I have open positions in India's MCX commodity future. I do not trade in CME future or OTC spot gold and spot silver.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
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PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLAR UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFED.
ALL NEWS IS TAKEN FROM REUTERS NEWSWIRES.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS DONE FROM TRADINGVIEW SOFTWARE
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