Momentum and trend is certainly bullish for gold and silver. There can be sharp correction anytime if gold prices consolidate for a week. Big short term hot money is there in gold and silver. There will be a big another big $300 rally in gold if US July nonfarm payrolls comes in way below expectation. If gold and silver rise next week then they will reach mars before Labor Day on 7th September. Trade very carefully and invest very carefully till Monday in gold and silver. There are lots of US economic data release today and tomorrow. It is very difficult to predict the reaction of markets are after the release of US data. Watch US bond yield trend closely.
There is good gold demand in India and in my view all over Asia today (considering historically high prices) as well as yesterday. People who did not buy gold at $1800 or $1950 were seen buying physical gold, physical silver and gold/silver jewelry. It is now embedded in people’s mind that higher gold and silver prices are here to stay. People worldwide (in my view) think that there will be sharp correction and not a short term bearish trend or a medium term bearish trend.
Jeweler in India believe that gold and silver price will correct sharply once there is a covid vaccine worldwide. Most of them can survive with less sales for another one year. There is hope that a covid vaccine will be available between six months to one year. Gold prices will crash and move into a bearish trend once a covid vaccine is available. With new norm of Rs.50, 000 per ten grams for gold, jewelers are expecting to recoup this year’s sales (lost sales) by 2021 Diwali. Over the past two weeks, I have been calling a numbers jewelers in different parts of India to get their view on gold/silver jewelry sales and how they are diversifying (using attractive designs and other ways to lower cost of final product) and their view on gold/silver price. These were made to current clients and ex-clients. I just did a sort of mini survey to increase my knowledge.
COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2020 – current price $2710.00
- Silver can rise to $2836 and $3015 today as long as it trades over $2627.
- Silver will crash if it trades below $2627 (till tomorrow).
MCX NICKEL AUGUST 2020 – current price Rs.1096.20
- Nickel can rise to 1292 by next week as long as it trades over 1041.90.
- Immediate resistance is at 1112.00. Nickel will rise very quickly if it manages to trade over 1112.00.
- Sharp corrections of 60-70 (if any) till next week should be used to invest with a stop loss below 984.50 for end August and a price target of 1292.
(prices in Indian rupees above)