TRENDS: NFP before and thereafter
29th November/Tuesday: CB Consumer Confidence (November)
- ADP employment (November)
- Core PCE (Q3)
- GDP (Q3)
- Chicago PMI (November)
- JOLTS jobs opening (November)
- Pending Home Sale (October)
1st December/Thursday: PCE Index (October)
- Personal Income (oct). Personal spending (Oct)
- ISM Manufacturing (November)
2nd December/Friday: Nonfarm payrolls (November)
- Durable Goods (October),
- ISM Non-manufacturing (november).
9th December/Friday: Producer Price Index (PPI), (November)
13th December/Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (November)
14th December/Wednesday: FOMC
All the above numbers can be trend changing for gold and silver, and base metals. Crude oil oversold. Natural gas is overbrought.
Trend and momentum is very bullish for gold and silver. Bearish for US dollar Index. I expect a near negative US November nonfarm payrolls. Tech, consumer durables and others have fired employees aggressively till last week in USA. The impact will be felt in the US November nonfarm payrolls. This is also one the reason why the greenback is falling and risk appetite is rising.
Nfp will be lower or will come in on the lowest side of expectation. Inflation or CPI/PPI have to come in lower as well for spot gold to break past $1900 before FOMC meeting and spot silver to break past $25.50 key long term resistance.
“The challenge for analysts is what if inflation still rises in November, and Nfp is lowest?” A higher or rising PPI/CPI numbers in USA (if any) will result sell off in all asset classes except bonds. This will be temporary and should be used to invest in gold and silver.
Copper and base metal price will be dependent on Chinese demand outlook and Black Friday weekend sale numbers. A higher than expected Black Friday sale numbers will also be very bullish for base metals. Lack of availability of Russian base metals in December will increase short term volatility.
Pre December FOMC rally in stocks, precious metals, base metals and Asian stock markets will be partly due to a bearish trend in US dollar Index and a bearish trend in global bond yields. How long will the rally continue? If the US dollar sinks after FOMC meet and into New Year, then the stoppage point will be way higher than most of us expect. Use higher trailing stop losses in your investment in December. Look for signs of correction just before FOMC or just after FOMC.
Totally new and unthinkable factors will be there in place after December FOMC. World will be looking at something beyond interest rate hike and interest rate hike pause. I believe economic fundamentals will dictate all asset classes. I also expect a new state regulation to revive the crypto currency market.
Herd and herd trading and FOMO will dictate all asset classes till the second week of January 2023. Bulls and bears will battle it out in the short term. Gold, silver, and copper are an invest in crash for Q4 of 2023.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2023 (current market price $2144.00)
- 200 week moving average: $2101.00
- 100 week moving average: $2347.50.
- 50 month moving average: $2168.50
- Silver has to trade over $2045.50 to rise to $2337.00 and $2500.50.
- Crash or sell off will be there if silver trades below $2045 to $1924.50 and more.
- Silver will also crash it does not break $2265 by Friday close (after NFP and till Friday close.)
COMEX COPPER MARCH 2023 (current market price: $356.50)
- 200 week MA: $345.10.
- Copper needs to trade over $352.00 to rise to $379.00 and $377.70 and $390.90.
- Copper will crash if it trades below $352.00 to $344.90 and $329.00.
- Immediate resistance is at $369.10. Copper will also crash if it does not break $369.10 by Wednesday close.
WTI CRUDE OIL current contract 2022 (current market price $74.09)
- 100% retracement: $72.50 and $74.27
- 100 week moving average: $81.00
- 200 month moving average: $72.60
- Crude oil has to trade over $72.50 to rise to $81.00 and $89.60.
- The next wave of sell off will be there if crude oil trades below $72.50 to $66.10 and $60.66.
- Immediate trend is down as long as crude oil trades below $78.10.
- A lot of long term investment stop losses will be triggered if crude oil has a daily close below $60.00 anytime in the next two months.
- No buying at current price. Please wait.
CENTRAL BANKS MEETINGS IN DECEMBER
- Federal Reserve: 14th December. (15th December for Asia).
- European Central Bank (ECB): 15th December
- Bank of England: 15th December
- Bank of Japan: 20th December
A 0.50% interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has been factored in by the markets. Traders are looking for clues for a pause in interest rate hike in March meeting by the Federal Reserve. In fact most central banks are expected to pause interest rate hike on or from February. January should be the last month for interest rate hike by most central banks worldwide.
Any indication that the Federal Reserve and other key central banks will raise interest rates in February/March meetings will cause a sell off once again in all asset classes.ace of fall in the US dollar index will set the trend for Asian currencies versus the US dollar and not the actual decline.