Diwali Greetings to everyone
I am asking myself have I lost a short term investment opportunity in gold and silver yesterday?
FOMC meet did not have any surprises. Taper was done. Money supply by the Federal Reserve will still increase every month. Various asset classes will continue to see frequent boom bust type of price moves till expectation of near term interest rate hike does not arise. I believe that now is the time for gold and silver to see a boom type price moves. So in a partial sense a short term investment opportunity was lost yesterday. However if tomorrow’s US October nonfarm payrolls comes in at or over 600,000 along with increase with in employment rates then gold and silver will come under renewed selling pressure. Reason will interest rate hike expectation will get preponed to June 2022.
So far this year vaccine and taper were the key theme for global financial markets. “Interest rate hike expectation by the Federal Reserve will be key theme for global financial markets till Easter of 2022.” (Good Friday in on 15th April 2022). Coronavirus will be just another disease next year like dengue, malaria or chickangunia. Pharma major Merck has got the US FDA emergency approval for pill for covid. Normalization with testing, vaccine and pill will be the future of a coronavirus free world. Economics, jobs and money supply related policy changes will dictate bullion, forex and global financial markets till next year.
Gold is still trading in a $1720-$1840 wider range. I am confident that this range will be broken soon and a new range will be formed. Comex gold, comex silver and comex copper December are expiring at the end of the month. Traders will start taking positions for early next year after tomorrow’s NFP. Day traders and jobbers of gold, silver and copper still have to remain on the sidelines.
Spot Gold: Spot gold has to trade over $1744.90-$1764.10 zone till Tuesday (9th November) to rise to $1821.80 and $1853.70. (a) Gold will crash or move into a short term bearish phase only if it trades below $1744.90-$1764.10 zone, today, tomorrow and continuously till Tuesday.
Spot Silver: Spot silver has to trade over $22.63-$22.80 zone for the rest of November to rise to $24.89 and $25.73. (a) The next massive sell off will be there only if spot silver trades below $22.63 today, tomorrow and continuously till 9th November.