General rule, breakouts will happen when the least amount of people are expecting it.
I've mentioned the cancellation index before, it's kind of a proprietary tool. It's nothing really special. It's just the amount of people that are getting frustrated and canceling their subscriptions and this always peaks right before a big move.
For Gold
So, that cancellation index, obviously it spiked right in here; this is where the cartel really died. They're not dead, but they're just not going to be able to suppress price to an integrated extent anymore. They tried multiple times here to drive gold back below $2000, but failed to do it.
And I warned people this would happen. All they were going to do was get themselves caught in a major short squeeze, and you can see that's exactly what happened; huge move.
When they could not push gold back below $2000, they got caught with all those shorts. And that produced a monster move up to $2450. And then we had another multi-week sideways consolidation.
Most of you remember, April 12th, that's where I said that you know, we were going to be stuck either going sideways, or we would have to have a corrective move back down into an intermediate cycle low. Turns out we just went sideways, and that seems to be the pattern here: mostly sideways corrections. Now, I think that'll change here once we get our next intermediate top and we'll have a deep intermediate correction.
Impatient retailer traders tend to make the wrong move at the wrong time. They give up and cancel their subscription right before a breakout move occurs.
The cartel got caught in the short squeeze. When suppression broke, we had a move up of 50 points. the retail traders who had already tapped out, missed the break out.
For gold, I think we've still got 100 to 150 points before this rally is done.
For Silver
We've got to have a ballistic phase in silver before this intermediate cycle for gold is done. When we're coming to the end of the phase for gold, you'll get that ballistic move in silver. I tend to think it's going to reach $40, and $37 is almost a lock. $40 is very likely, and there's an off-chance we might even get to $43.
Until we get to that ballistic phase in silver, the cycle is not over. If you're losing patience, you may make the classic retail mistake of giving up before the upside breakout occurs.
For silver, we've had two tests of this breakout zone already. It's too early for this to be an intermediate top. The cartel will try to stop the move, but they won't be able to. They will be able to slow it down enough to have a lot of people break off. Then when the move comes, you'll have a lot of people on the sidelines. Those are the people that have to chase the move, and that's what powers the ballistic move.
You have to be in before the breakout comes. Don't get frustrated and back out.
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