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GoldSeek Radio Nugget - David Haggith: "I Think We're Already in a Recession"


David Haggith, head of The Daily Doom:, rejoins the show with his insights on the financial markets and charts.

- David thinks the true GDP number lacks veracity due in part to inflation issues.

What I see is, putting the war stuff, aside for this discussion, is all forms of other chaos as well that are gonna that are impacting our nation...and for example, these latest reports of the GDP going up, looking so much surprisingly better, and it's late because inflation is going down. Well, I would say: GDP went up because inflation went down but inflation didn't really go down. CPI measure of inflation went down and that's how you adjust real GDP is by subtracting out that inflation...but if you're not subtracting out, now you got to use this qualifier: real inflation, what the inflation really is, then you're not taking GDP down enough to get the inflation effect out of it...because what you want to measure is port how much product your country is producing, services, and items.

...and you don't want to measure just how much because it's measured in dollars. You don't want to measure how much just the dollars inflated. You want to know how much the production is actually gone up. Well, if your idea of inflation is grossly distorted then you're not taking out enough money, enough of those dollars from GDP to get to what real GDP is...and I think that's what we saw in this last major. Well, this creates its own form of chaos because you've got people operating as if something's happening here, where the economy is up and strong and inflation is going down...and none of that is true. 

- Is the US already in a "double-dip" recession - our guest and the Conference Board think so.

"I think we're already in a recession and I said, I don't think you're gonna see it in GDP when this quarter comes in because I think the inflation number is so rigged. It's going to wipe all of that out and the housing is one side of that. The other side of it is this gross thing they did with health care costs, health care insurance..."

- Can investors trust the official employment numbers since the 2020 pandemic lockdowns?
- David is concerned by the "Double Top" in the Case-Shiller Index:
- The key US equities market, the S&P 500 continues to blast to new all-time records.
- Fascinating price structure in the crude oil market points to increased volatility.
- David notes that geopolitical issues could send the price of crude oil sky-high.
- Technical overview of the US Dollar.
- Is the industrial commodity, Lithium, reaching a buying opportunity?

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