Great War in a Time of Economic Collapse

When have we seen a Great War during a time of serious economic collapse? World War II comes to mind as a similar time, especially now that everyone is saying “WWIII.” Have we ever seen an oil crisis lead to a severe recession with soaring prices at the same time—an unusual concurrence? We don’t have to think that far back to recall those years that became defined as “stagflation.”

While President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have both vowed that the US Navy will break Iran’s present siege on Gulf oil by shepherding tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, the US Navy already said au contraire:

No escorts. No timeline. But even if they do they’re sitting ducks for Iran’s coastal defence forces, no Iranian Navy presence required. The petrodollar runs through a chokepoint the United States can no longer credibly protect, defended by interceptor systems now operating without their primary radar.

That’s because Iran managed to get a single missile through US defenses in the past 24 hours that knocked out some critical defensive radar used by missile interceptors to target the missiles and decide which ones need to be knocked out of the air, then automatically take them down.

It’s unlikely that, unless the US military could prove it is able to protect merchant ships, anyone would be willing to make the run even with a navy escort, because there is always a big risk in a war this hot that the enemy will find a way to make good on its threats. Would you walk into a roaring fire if someone said, “Here, I’ve got a good fire suit for you.” Not if you didn’t have to!

To offset that risk, both Trump and Bessent pledged that the United States would also double down on providing cheap insurance for any vessel ready to brave the journey through fiery seas. All that means for America is that Trump & Treasury are guaranteeing that US taxpayers will pay for every merchant ship and shipment that is sunk or burned in the Gulf due to this war.

3,200 ships are sitting idle. European gas is up 50% and climbing fast. A global recession is no longer a forecast — it’s a Wednesday. The Gulf monarchs who rented their soil to Washington are watching their ports burn and their pipelines get threatened while the Navy says it needs more time….

Iran just destroyed a $1.1 BILLION US radar system at Al Udeid — the most fortified American base in the ENTIRE Middle East….

That radar was the backbone of US missile defense in the Gulf. Every Patriot battery. Every THAAD system. All of them relied on it. The US military is now operating blind in the region.

Qatar intercepted 101 missiles. TWO got through. One hit the ONLY target that mattered. That’s a 98% success [defensive] rate — and it wasn’t enough….

Every Patriot interceptor costs $4M. Every Iranian missile costs $300K. Iran can outspend us 10 to 1 in this war of attrition….

If the US couldn’t protect a $1.1 BILLION radar inside its OWN base — how is it going to protect:

→ Oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz?

→ Saudi refineries?

→ Global shipping lanes?

→ YOUR economy?

Here is one economic scenario laid out in that story for the weeks ahead:

Week 1 (now): Oil refineries hit. Strait closed. Markets crashed $3.2T.

Week 2: Shipping lanes completely unusable. Oil hits $100+. Global supply chains break.

Week 3: Inflation spikes worldwide. Central banks forced to hike rates. Housing markets crack.

Week 4-5: Recession hits. Layoffs begin. The economic damage becomes permanent.

Following the headlines below, I’ll lay out the economic collapse scenarios that are actually happening right now to the US economy, which this war will pile on top of.