I want to start off with a quote from Bernard Baruch, one of the most famous investors in all of all time. He said that he made a fortune by selling too soon. So, I'm going to apply this to the metals market right now. We're going to have a lot of traders obsessed, they've got FOMO really bad right now. They have become, you know, this rally has been extremely powerful. They're convinced that it's going to repeat, the exact same thing that gold is going to skyrocket up to $2800 or $3000 here and any day now, and they don't want to miss it. I doubt that's going to happen. I think you're probably going to be better off following Bernard Baruch's advice and sell a little too soon.
So here's what I think is in progress; this daily cycle is very mature. I think we're on day 45, 46, something like that. It's pretty rare that a daily cycle lasts more than 50 to 55 days, even a long cycle rarely goes much more than that. I'm positive that the cycle has topped, and we're now in the declining phase of the cycle.
I'll let you in, on a secret here that usually only SMT subscribers are made aware of: Almost all it's not 100%, nothing is, but almost all cycle declines, whether it be a minor daily cycle or a larger intermediate cycle or yearly cycle. Almost all of them end up having to break the intermediate or the break the uptrend line.
Now, there are two ways of ways to draw this. This uptrend line, you could draw it from this pivot, through this half-cycle low. You can see we haven't broken that yet. Pretty much every single time I start to think, well this time it might be different, it always comes back and ends up biting me in the ass. So I am not going to assume that we got our daily cycle low right here without breaking this trend line, I think we're probably going to break it. So we need to at least break and preferably close below this trend line before I want to start looking for a final daily cycle low.
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