Miles Franklin sponsored this article by Gary Christenson. The opinions are his and are not investment advice.
Make America Great Again. It is a good idea, but there is more to the story. The U.S. has traveled far down the “fake money and government control” path. Any return trip will be traumatic.
But onward, to the MAGA story.
From Bill Bonner:
“If Americans wanted to Make America Great Again, they could simply go back to the things that made it great in the first place – honest money, smallish government, and a free-ish economy.”
The U.S. does not want honest money, small government, or a free economy. Based on actions, not words, our government and most citizens want fake money, big government that continually expands, and a controlled economy.
- If honest money made America great, why want fake money? Because…
- If government expenses are (in round numbers) $6 trillion per year and revenues are $3 trillion per year, fake money is necessary to close the revenue gap. If government collected and spent real money, limited by gold backing those real dollars, deficit spending would be difficult. But with fake money it is easy to spend deficit dollars—borrow and print, and repeat.
- Way back, pre-Richard Nixon, we had modified real money. Foreigners, but not American citizens, could redeem dollars for gold. However, the political spending obsession and the Vietnam War forced President Nixon to make a choice - abandon real money or reduce spending.
- He chose to “float” the dollar against other currencies, ignore fiscal restraint, and allow debt to grow to unbelievable numbers. He opened Pandora’s Box of fake money and released monetary misery upon the world.
- Honest money would require balanced government budgets, interest rates that fairly represent risk and the time value of money, and politicians who spend a fraction of what they toss around today.
- Honest money means The Federal Reserve would provide little value. Their employees would have to make a living providing a valuable good or service to willing buyers. Oops.
- Wall Street would be constrained. Trillions of fake dollars that have inflated Wall Street importance, stocks, and bonds would disappear. Instead of indices selling for thousands of mini dollars, they might be down 90% from current “nosebleed” levels. Oops.
- The political and financial elite do not want a stock market crash, honest money, or balanced budgets. The wealthy and elite will fight against honest money with every mini dollar at their disposal.
- Honest money might encourage honest elections—a danger zone.
More indictments against what is needed for MAGA.
It takes a large government to manage and control the populace. But small government helped make American great – before the Deep State took firm control.
Small government and honest money will be popular with very few.
Consider the unpopular consequences:
- If congress or the President wants war, raise taxes. Oops.
- If congress wants a new Medicare benefit, raise taxes or cut something else in the budget. Unpopular.
- If a hurricane devastates a city, use accumulated surplus funds to help the people. But we have no accumulated surplus. Problem!
- If congress wants to give away phones, housing, military hardware, prescription drugs, food stamps, or foreign aid, then raise taxes.
- If congress overspends the budget, then terminate congressional pensions. Oops, we do not demand accountability from congress.
- If Social Security cannot afford their promised benefits, raise the payroll taxes or cut elsewhere in the budget. The so called “third rail” in politics—reduce Social Security—is a non-starter.
- If the Military-Industrial-Complex wants a new weapons system, then… you know the drill.
The problem is obvious. People want giveaways, expanded military, more government benefits, free drugs, free food, free medical care, subsidized housing, a Universal Basic Income, free everything…
BUT PEOPLE ALSO WANT LOWER TAXES.
Bottom line: We cannot reduce the budget, we will not cut programs, we do not want to raise taxes, and congresspersons will not disappoint their owners nor the voters.
The answer is debt. Make that DEBT!!!
Yes, the U.S. has accumulated over $27 trillion in official national debt as of November 2020. For perspective, national debt reached $1 trillion in 1981.
To make America great again, we need honest money and smaller government, but almost nobody wants them. Remember the consequences of honest money—balanced budgets, limited spending, higher interest rates, minimal debt, no need for a Federal Reserve, reduced government, fewer social programs, limited giveaways, smaller military, less regulation, and stable purchasing power.
But the U.S. could create a robust economy after suffering the catastrophic consequences of returning to honest money. Unlikely!
In summary, the chances of returning to honest money remind me of:
- A snowball’s chance for survival in the Mohave Desert in August.
- Redirecting a hurricane with a living room fan,
- The Federal Reserve apologizing for stealing from the middle class,
- 535 representatives and senators refusing contributions from lobbyists,
- Negotiating with a tornado, or
- A 15-handicapper winning in head-to-head competition with Tiger Woods.
In short, we probably will not see honest money.
If MAGA requires honest money, small government and a less restricted economy, then it is not happening.
What Should We DO?
1) Face facts. Multi-trillion-dollar deficits are the new normal. Larger deficits are inevitable, regardless of which political party is mismanaging the national economy.
2) The Fed will monetize to keep stock markets levitated and politicians funded.
3) Expect QE4ever, debt and more debt.
4) Plan for a devalued dollar as measured against commodities and necessities.
5) Another election in 2024 will be the most important ever, or so they will say.
6) Pick five or more: Recession, depression, market crash, markets levitated, inflation, stagflation, hyper-inflation, MMT, Universal Basic Income, debt forgiveness, and bailouts to individuals, cities, states, and corporations.
The Results of refusing to use honest money will be:
1) More of the same mismanagement, only worse.
2) Dollars will buy less.
3) The rich will get richer and the poor will get scraps.
4) Volatility in prices for stocks, gold and silver.
5) Gold and silver prices will rise much higher during the next five years.
Official national debt will increase from $27 trillion to $40 trillion and then $50 trillion. The world will realize the dollar is worth far less. Gold prices will rise, then spike higher as panic overwhelms economists, citizens, politicians, and bankers.
Slowly at first, then rapidly… Like bankruptcy, this applies to:
- “Printing” fake money,
- Dollar devaluations,
- Disenchantment with the political and financial elite,
- Increase in social unrest,
- Market corrections from high valuations, and
- Rising gold and silver prices.
- Make America Great Again—The Other Version—requires policy changes that will upset everyone.
- Do not plan on the return of honest money or small government.
- Expect larger deficits and more debt, MUCH MORE DEBT.
- Gold prices will rise as they devalue the dollar via deficits and “printing.”
- Silver prices will rise more rapidly than gold prices.
- Buy gold. Buy silver.
Miles Franklin will exchange digital dollars for real money—gold and silver. Act before another catastrophic change occurs.