CPI, PPI AND FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING
Options triggers caused the rise followed by the collapse in gold and silver last week. US November nonfarm payroll numbers suggests that recession will not be there. Mild slowdown at the most. Traders were ahead and were expecting an interest rate cut in March 2024 by the Federal Reserve. As of now interest rate cut in March is out of question unless inflation continues to fall in the months of November and December. CPI and PCE inflation numbers have to fall in November and December months for any chance of interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March meeting.
Volatility will be very high in gold and silver. Base metals and energies price trend will be dependent on news from China. Copper is on the verge of a key technical breakout if rises this week. This week should be a big week for copper and base metal bulls as well.
Traders have factored in a pause in the interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Market have fully priced that interest rate have peaked by the Federal Reserve and most key central banks.
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2024 (current market price : $2012.50)
- Key price to watch this week: $2002.80
- 50 day MA: $1966.90
- 200 day MA: $1959.70
- THIS WEEK: Gold February 2024 needs to trade over $1990.40 this week to rise to $2063.50 and more.
- Crash or sell off will be there if gold February 2024 does not break $2063.50 by Thursday close.
- A daily close below $1990.00 between 14th December and 20th December will cause the arrival of a short-term bearish zone which can last till the middle of January. (just a caution.)
TREND ON OR AFTER 14th December is the key. It will be a technical trade between 14th December and 11th January 2024. Only very significant news will change the trend in all asset classes. Spot gold has to trade over $1985 after 14th December and thereafter everyday till 31st January 2024 to be in a short-term bullish zone. Spot silver has to trade over $22.70-$23.00 zone after 14th December and thereafter till 31st January 2024 to be a very short-term bullish zone.
SOME GOLD NEWS FROM RUSSIA
Russia said this week that it was looking into whether its frozen gold reserves, taken after Russia invaded Ukraine, could be used to fund the climate damage fund to help developing countries.
In what looked like an attempt to try to fulfil Moscow's aim of doing "everything possible" to stop the West from seizing its frozen reserves, Russia's climate envoy said at the COP28 summit the move would help to close the gap between developed and developing countries in dealing with climate change.
It is unlikely to be agreed upon. The West froze around half - or more than $300 billion - of Russia's international reserves after Moscow sent its armed forces into Ukraine in February last year.
(news source Reuters.com)
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk factors including their own personal financial situation before trading. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRADAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF THE REPORT
ALL PRICES/QUOTES IN THIS REPORT ARE IN US DOLLARS UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED.
NEWS SOURCE IS REUTERS NEWS.
TRADING VIEW IS USED FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS